For the Atlanta Braves, the offense must now carry the load

The road to the World Series just got a little tougher for the Atlanta Braves.

With Ronald Acuña Jr’s left knee injury on Sunday keeping him out for the remainder of the regular season, it’s important to have proper context on where the Braves currently stand.

The regular season is not over and this team is more than capable of making a deep playoff run. They did just that in 2021, losing Acuña on July 10 in Miami and then winning the World Series on career hot streaks thanks to the trade acquisitions of Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and Joc Pederson.

I don’t think you need to do this right now.

The 2024 team is infinitely more talented than the one the Braves ended up with following Acuña’s injury in 2021 – here’s the starting lineup for Game 1 after the Braves lost Acuña to Miami:

RF Ehire Adrianza
1B Freddie Freeman
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
LF Orlando Arcia
SS Dansby Swanson
CFGuillermo Heredia
C Kevan Smith

Two career infielders, Ehire Adrianza and Orlando Arcia, occupy the corner outfield spots. Kevan Smith as a backup catcher, who had such a good year (.165/.248.198 in thirty games) that Atlanta would end up using six different backup catchers this season (and Smith would never play in affiliated ball again after his last departure for Atlanta on August 8.)

Ian Anderson started that game, with Josh Tomlin, Shane Greene and Edgar Santana all among the relievers who started him in a 7-4 Braves loss that dropped them to 44-45 on the season.

Now, let’s look at the roster this season. You’ll replace those two infielders on the outfield corners with Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duvall, with Michael Harris II representing a significant upgrade over Guillermo Heredia in center. With the expected return of Sean Murphy from the injured list this afternoon, Travis d’Arnaud returns to the role of backup catcher.

Once Charlie Morton leaves today’s start, he will be replaced by a high-powered quarterback consisting of AJ Minter, Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson and Raisel Iglesias.

This is an infinitely more talented roster than the one Atlanta was working with in 2021.

And it will depend on the offense.

Yes, Atlanta had some stellar pitching performances in the postseason in 2021 – Max Fried was trampled at first base in what appeared to be a broken ankle before locking out for six scoreless innings in the deciding Game 6 against Houston. Ian Anderson was hitless in five innings on a rainy evening in Atlanta during Game 3 of the World Series. Will Smith goes a perfect 6-6 on save opportunities in the playoffs, or Tyler Matzek’s NLCS heroics in Game 6 against the Dodgers.

But the story of the 2021 playoffs was the offense.

Joc Pederson’s two home runs in the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers. Eddie Rosario goes nuclear in the NLCS against LA with fourteen hits, three home runs and nine RBIs. Jorge Soler’s three home runs in the World Series against Houston, including one that still hasn’t come back to Earth.

This is what needs to happen again.

Atlanta is 30-20 right now, the third-best record in the National League, but six games behind the Philadelphia Phillies, who are in the midst of one of their best starts in franchise history at 38-16. The Braves got to this point because of their pitching – Atlanta’s team ERA of 3.38 is the 7th best mark in baseball, and three of the team’s four qualified starters have ERAs better than that, led by Reynaldo López at 1.75 and Chris Sale at 2.12. .

López and Sale are the driving forces behind Atlanta’s success – the two starters have combined for just 25 runs in nineteen starts and 115 innings. Sale won seven straight starts and sparked a streak of twenty-one innings, allowing just two runs and two walks in five starts in May (thirty-two innings). López has the third-lowest ERA in baseball among qualified starters.

But this might not be sustainable. As we’ve already mentioned, both starters are having workload issues this season – Sale is coming off a combined 151 innings over the past three seasons due to injury, while López hasn’t topped 66 innings in a season since 2019 due to his role as a reliever. the last seasons. There’s no guarantee that Sale can continue to be as effective down the stretch as he was during that May hot streak, while there are legitimate questions about how long López, already at 51.1 innings, can stay in the rotation before having to move to the bullpen.

No, Atlanta’s success this season (or lack thereof) will be down to offense. And that pressure falls on the “big four”: Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies. That quartet totaled 164 homers last season, paced by Olson’s league-leading 54.

But after Ozuna’s fifteen long balls this season, the other three in this group have combined for fourteen home runs. Olson is hitting just .230, while Riley was sitting at .245 in his last game, almost two weeks ago, due to a mild intercostal strain. Albies has built his average up to .269, but his current slugging percentage of .392 is currently a career low for the second baseman.

Marcell Ozuna carried the offense this season, with his fifteen home runs and forty-seven RBIs at National League pace.

But he needs help. And it’s up to Riley, Olson and Albies to give it to him.