Bills RB Ray Davis should finish among NFL’s top 5 rushing rookies

Do you want the good news or the bad news first?

We’ll lead with the good: ESPN’s Mike Clay projects Buffalo Bills running back Ray Davis to finish among the top five rookies in yardage.

THE… not so well – the planned production is not necessarily earth-shattering.

Clay projects the former Kentucky Wildcat to rush for 356 yards and two touchdowns as a rookie, firmly behind Jonathan Brooks (877 yards, six touchdowns), Trey Benson (507 yards, three touchdowns) and Blake Corum (471 yards, three affected). Moving outside the running back sphere, the analyst expects Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels to finish second among all rookies in rushing yards with 577 yards and five touchdowns.

“Corum and Davis will respectively push Kyren Williams and James Cook to change pace right off the bat,” Clay wrote of his projection of Davis. “Since 2011, only six running backs who were not selected in the first two rounds have rushed for 1,000 yards as a rookie.”

Related: Where ESPN projects Bills WR Keon Coleman to rank among rookie receivers

Barely 350 yards in a 17-game season is far from gaudy production for a back who totaled 1,452 yards from scrimmage for Kentucky last year, but it’s believable. Davis, in Buffalo, projects James Cook’s lightning like thunder; Fresh off a season in which he finished sixth in the NFL in yards from scrimmage (1,567), Cook is still leading the way in Buffalo. Davis will spell it in short yardage and goal line situations – don’t expect a gaudy stat line.

The projection of two rushing touchdowns also isn’t that surprising when you consider who the Bills are deploying at quarterback. Josh Allen can perhaps best be described as a human rhino, and while Davis may have a good number of carries in the red zone, it will likely be Allen who carries the rock near the goal line more often than not.

Davis’ production probably won’t be spectacular, but he will certainly play an important role in Buffalo’s offense. Also note that its production will not be limited to the soil; he caught 94 passes for 762 yards throughout his college career and therefore could be a passing factor for the Bills.