If Atlanta doesn’t like Alex Sarr, they need to consider dropping down and staying in the top five

It’s always nice to have options and the Atlanta Hawks have plenty on their table after their Draft Lottery victory on Sunday. Atlanta was going to have a very busy offseason whether they won the lottery or not, but winning gives them flexibility they didn’t have before. There’s always the question of what Atlanta does with its backcourt of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, but having the No. 1 pick makes it easier to part with one of them.

Since the Hawks won the lottery, there seems to be consensus that they should stick with the pick and take Alex Sarr, a 7’1 forward/center from France who checks a lot of the boxes the Hawks need on their team and is considered by many to be the prospect with the highest ceiling in the draft. He’s the favorite for the No. 1 pick, but this draft could also be the most unpredictable since the 2013 draft, famous for the shocking choice of Anthony Bennett.

I’ve written about Sarr’s fit with the Hawks and how I think he should be the pick, but it’s unclear if Atlanta will come to the same conclusion. Yesterday, Atlanta Hawks head coach Quin Snyder, general manager Landry Fields and assistant general manager Kyle Korver sat courtside watching potential No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher play in the playoffs in France.

Once Atlanta has done their due diligence and they like players more than Sarr, they need to call the four teams behind them (Wizards, Rockets, Spurs and Pistons) and see if any of them would like to exchange. This would give Atlanta additional draft capital and they would still get one of the players they want.

Dan Favale of Bleacher Report had two trade proposals in which the Hawks do just that. One with the Wizards at #2 and one with the Spurs at #4.

The exchange

Atlanta Hawks Receive: No. 4 pick, 2025 first-round pick (his)

San Antonio Spurs receive: No. 1 pick

Why the Hawks are doing it

“To drop three spots, the Hawks must believe there’s little separating this year’s top prospects – or that they simply lack a preference. If the player they prefer projects to be available at No. 4, reacquiring their own 2025 first round would give them some runway heading into next season, reducing the urgency with which they must operate over the summer.

Whether this constitutes sufficient incentive is debatable. San Antonio also controls Atlanta’s first-rounders in 2026 (trade) and 2027 (outright), so it’s not like the Hawks suddenly have the license to do this again without considering draft obligations.

However, as an asset management game, it absolutely tracks. Atlanta would get a top-five prospect and give itself a (limited) window in which it can consider more seismic changes ahead of the 2024-25 campaign without fear of giving up a glitzy lottery selection next June.

Why the Spurs are doing it

Because they are seduced by the idea of ​​playing Victor Wembanyama alongside Alex Sarr. Or because they’re in love with pairing him and one of the other options and fear their favorite prospect will be scooped up by Atlanta, Washington (No. 2) or Houston (No. 3).

Sending the Hawks first-rounder back to 2025 might not sit well with the Spurs. But that wouldn’t give Atlanta time to clean its entire slate willy-nilly. The Hawks should still worry about two additional obligations to San Antonio in the coming years.

Unless the Hawks somehow turn this 2025 first-rounder into a prospect or trade acquisition that erases the upside of their 2026 and 2027 picks, the Spurs would still be sitting on two extremely short bites. attractive to the draft apple. »

This is a trade that should interest the Hawks if they don’t want to take Sarr. They would have their own pick next year, which would help if they had a disappointing season, they would only drop three spots. Would they just go back to No. 4 if they like Risacher the most in the draft? That would be the smart thing to do in this scenario. They get the player they want and their own choice next season.

Let’s look at the other proposed exchange.

The exchange

Atlanta Hawks receive: No. 2 pick, No. 26 pick, 2026 second-round pick from Chicago

Washington Wizards receive: No. 1 pick

Why the Hawks are doing it

“Because they know who the Wizards want, they don’t want him, and they’re looking to get extra value out of the draft while still getting who they want.

Picking up another late first-round pick and a second-rounder two years later to move down from No. 1 wouldn’t be a departure in most years. However, this is not the case most years. If the top of this draft truly lacks consensus among top prospects, the chance to land another first-round pick on a cost-controlled rookie scale without torpedoing your own interests at the top of the lottery would be a sweet deal .

It would be more difficult to accept this offer if, for example, Alex Sarr emerged as an obvious option.

Front offices with better track records and the job security that comes with them might disappear anyway if they’re more gaga than someone else. Hawks general manager Landry Fields doesn’t exactly fall into that category. But again, for our purposes, we take the ambiguous and unflattering assessments of this project at face value.

Why do wizards do it?

To get pick #1. Uh.

Coughing up another first rounder to move up a spot in what could be a disappointing draft and taking someone who may be available when you’re on the clock wouldn’t be the most earth-shattering or sexy play anyway. So be it.

Washington would not embark on this attempt to stage a coup – a reverse Markelle Fultz for Jayson Tatum, if you will. It would make this trade because a late first-rounder and a future second-rounder is a justifiable price to pay in determining your own destiny.

If general manager Will Dawkins, team president Michael Winger and their scouting department believe there is a material difference between their best player and everyone else, the chance to determine their own destiny would go from luxury to luxury. possibility of modifying the deductible. »

Again, if Atlanta doesn’t think Sarr is the best player on their board, move down one spot, take an extra first-rounder and a second-rounder next year from the Bulls, and still find your guy, whether either Risacher, Buzelis, Clingan, or maybe a wild card like Ron Holland.

If I’m the Hawks, I would stay there and take Sarr because I think he’s the better player and would be a great fit. Atlanta has struggled on the defensive end in recent seasons and lacks size, athleticism and length, which Sarr brings in spades. He is 7’1, 220 LBS and has a wingspan of 7’4. He uses his athleticism well and would immediately be an impact guy on that side of the floor. He’s arguably the highest prospect in the draft at a position of need for the Hawks. He is the presumptive favorite to be selected No. 1 for a reason.

This draft may not contain a franchise-altering superstar player, but for a team like Atlanta, it contains the perfect complementary piece in Sarr. He would fill a huge defensive need with his ability to block shots and protect the rim, while also having the athleticism to guard the perimeter. His three-point shooting and rebounding might be slight concerns, but playing with an elite point guard like Trae Young would ease those concerns. A future lineup of Sarr, Young, Johnson and Okongwu could be the cornerstone of the Hawks franchise if they can make it work.

If they don’t think that way, they should trade a few places and collect more draft capital.