If the Atlanta Hawks take Alex Sarr with the No. 1 pick, does that mean a Clint Capela trade is likely?

The Hawks had a big but pleasant surprise when they won the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery on Sunday. Even though they only had a 3% chance of winning the No. 1 pick, Atlanta won the Draft Lottery for the first time time in franchise history, adding an unexpected twist to what is expected to be a busy offseason in terms of the desire to reshape the roster.

There has been a lot of talk over the past few months leading up to the NBA Draft about this being one of the weakest drafts in NBA history or at least 25-30 last few years, but there are still talented players in the class and one name, in particular, has been mocked by the Hawks since the moment they won the lottery.

Alex Sarr has been mocked by the Hawks by several major media outlets over the past 24 hours since the Draft Lottery and if Atlanta takes him, it makes a lot of sense. Atlanta has struggled on the defensive end in recent seasons and lacks size, athleticism and length, which Sarr brings in spades. He is 7’1, 220 LBS and has a wingspan of 7’4. He uses his athleticism well and would immediately be an impact guy on that side of the floor. He’s arguably the highest prospect in the draft at a position of need for the Hawks. He is the presumptive favorite to be selected No. 1 for a reason.

Would he play center for the Hawks? Power forward? I think it’s up for debate, but if the Hawks take him, would that mean the likelihood of center Clint Capela being traded would increase?

I think it would have to do with on-field reasons and financial reasons, as the Hawks could be facing an interesting situation with the salary cap according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks, as he explained yesterday:

“In any other year, climbing nine spots in the draft to No. 1 would be considered a coup, especially for an Atlanta Hawks team that has been mired in mediocrity over the past few years. of the past three seasons But team executives spoke to ESPN hours after Sunday’s draft lottery did not want to discuss who Atlanta might draft, but rather the financial ramifications of now having the top pick.

Since the NBA operates with a sliding rookie scale depending on when a player is selected, Atlanta would have to increase its payroll by an additional $7 million (the first pick is $12.6 million, up from $5 million). $5 million for a player selected 10th). This is important because Atlanta now has a salary of $175.9 million and is expected to be subject to the luxury tax for the first time since 2010-11.

More importantly, though, the Hawks are $2.2 million over the first apron, due to improbable bonuses from De’Andre Hunter, Dejounte Murray and Clint Capela. Improbable incentives continue to count for the first and second apron even if they are not achieved. Signing restricted free agent Saddiq Bey to either a qualifying offer or a new contract would also push Atlanta over the second apron.

As teams have pointed out, keep an eye on the Hawks’ $23 million trade exception that expires on July 7. If Atlanta doesn’t lose salary, the exception is not allowed in a trade. Atlanta would also not be allowed to consolidate contracts or recoup more money in a transaction if the acquirer’s salary left them beyond the second apron.

Despite the bleak financial outlook, Capela (the Hawks’ starting center) has a $22.3 million contract that’s expiring and could be replaceable if Atlanta drafts Alex Sarr at No. 1. Additionally, except of veteran Trae Young, no player on the Hawks roster. earns over $25.5 million.

But back to the reasons on the ground.

Capela has been great for the Hawks since they acquired him in February 2020 for next to nothing in a four-team deal involving the Hawks, Rockets, Nuggets and Timberwolves. He should have received more love as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in the 2020-21 season and was Atlanta’s anchor on the defensive end, a spot where they struggled. He has been the perfect lob threat for Trae Young in the pick-and-roll and is underrated among many for his impact on the team.

After the Hawks traded for Capela, they drafted Onyeka Okongwu with the No. 6 pick in 2020 and some thought Capela would only be in Atlanta for a few seasons until Okongwu took over full time. Not only did that not happen, but both players signed extensions with Atlanta. It doesn’t make much sense to have these two together on the team anymore and that was before the Hawks had the opportunity to take Sarr. Now that they can take on a high defensive prospect like Sarr, it makes even more sense to move Capela.

What kind of return could the Hawks get for Capela?

I would temper your expectations regarding the potential return if you are a Hawks fan. Capela is entering the final year of his contract and is not much of an offensive threat. He had a 2023-24 season that was a bit of a step down from his usual level of play, but he still provides upside as a shot blocker and rebounder.

Watch out for teams like Oklahoma City, Memphis and perhaps New Orleans to be interested, as all of these teams need a player like Capela. It could be a set of second-round picks sent to Atlanta or possibly a rotation player.

That doesn’t solve all of Atlanta’s questions, however.

I think the biggest question would be whether Sarr and Onyeka Okongwu could play together on the court. Okongwu has primarily been a center with the Hawks and rarely shares the court with another big man, although head coach Quin Snyder tried lineups with Capela and Okongwu on the court together last year, although it was in limited number.

According to Cleaning the Glass, Okongwu and Capela only played 279 possessions this season and had a +2.1 point differential when sharing the court. The problem is that this sample size is far too small and there isn’t enough evidence to say Okongwu could play all four well.

If Sarr and Okongwu were to play together, the question of floor spacing would arise. Okongwu showed a willingness to make more three-pointers last season, but only attempted 69 and made 23 (33%). Arguably he would have taken more three points if he hadn’t gotten hurt, but his three-point shooting remains a big question mark. Combine that with Sarr’s questions on the offensive end and his ability to space the court, this could be a tricky situation for Atlanta.

Atlanta is fortunate to be in the position they are in due to their lottery win, but tough decisions will still have to be made and could include trading Capela.