Examining the suitability of potential No. 1 pick Alex Sarr on the Atlanta Hawks

In case you haven’t heard, the Atlanta Hawks won the 2024 NBA Draft lottery on Sunday, despite only having a 3% chance of landing the top pick. It was the first time in franchise history that Atlanta managed to win the lottery and frankly, it was the only time Atlanta got lucky in the lottery.

Immediately after winning the lottery, speculation about what they would do with the pick began. Would the Hawks stay at No. 1 and take the best player on their board or would they trade the pick and try to get some veteran help to put around one of their guards? The No. 1 pick hasn’t been traded often in NBA Draft history, but in a draft perceived as weak, it’s not the craziest idea in the world.

If they remain No. 1, however, there is a perceived favorite.

Alex Sarr has been mocked by the Hawks by several major media outlets over the past 24 hours since the Draft Lottery and if Atlanta takes him, it makes a lot of sense. Atlanta has struggled on the defensive end in recent seasons and lacks size, athleticism and length, which Sarr brings in spades. He is 7’1, 220 LBS and has a wingspan of 7’4. He uses his athleticism well and would immediately be an impact guy on that side of the floor. He’s arguably the highest prospect in the draft at a position of need for the Hawks. He is the presumptive favorite to be selected No. 1 for a reason.

How would he fit in with the Hawks if they decided to select him with the No. 1 pick?

If they take Sarr, I think it would hasten Clint Capela’s exit from the Hawks, because I think Sarr is going to play center in the league (but he could play power forward). Atlanta would be in a bind at this position and if you take Sarr at No. 1, he needs to play a lot of minutes right away, without coming off the bench. Capela was already a trade candidate due to his expiring contract and his age. I think the biggest question would be whether Sarr and Onyeka Okongwu could play together on the court. Okongwu has primarily been a center with the Hawks and rarely shares the court with another big man, although head coach Quin Snyder tried lineups with Capela and Okongwu on the court together last year, although it was in limited number.

According to Cleaning the Glass, Okongwu and Capela only played 279 possessions this season and had a +2.1 point differential when sharing the court. The problem is that this sample size is far too small and there isn’t enough evidence to say Okongwu could play all four well.

If Sarr and Okongwu were to play together, the question of floor spacing would arise. Okongwu showed a willingness to make more three-pointers last season, but only attempted 69 and made 23 (33%). Arguably he would have taken more three points if he hadn’t gotten hurt, but his three-point shooting remains a big question mark. Combine that with Sarr’s questions on the offensive end and his ability to space the court, this could be a tricky situation for Atlanta.

But it’s not just the fit between Okongwu and Sarr that would be the question. Jalen Johnson made huge strides on offense last season, including improving the three-point shot. Johnson shot 28.8% from three in 2022-23, but improved that to 35.5% this season, going 71-200. Could there be another leap in his future? This would help in the event that Atlanta decides to take Sarr and not trade Okongwu.

The defensive shape would be very intriguing with these three guys on the floor though. Some of Atlanta’s best lineups included Johnson and Okongwu, although it was a small sample size, but one has to wonder if there might be something there. If Johnson and Okongwu both show the moves to space the field, this could make for a dangerous lineup moving forward. The ability of Johnson, Okongwu and Sarr to switch and guard multiple positions would be something Atlanta never had with Trae Young and would help hide its defensive deficiencies.

The one aspect of this adjustment I haven’t mentioned yet is Trae Young, who is one of the best offensive players and shot creators in the NBA. Assuming the Hawks choose to keep him, Young makes life easier for all players on the court, which would make Sarr’s offensive transition easier. He never had the luxury of playing with a point guard of that caliber and he would have plenty of great looks on the court. It’s almost impossible to have a bad offense on the court as long as Young is leading the charge on that end, but shooting and spacing would always remain the biggest question mark.

The other question would be who starts at the other guard post? Assuming Atlanta trades Murray, this would be a question that would loom large. The Murray trade is of course hypothetical and without knowing what Atlanta got back in a deal from him, it’s worth speculating on who else would be in the lineup. Could it be Bogdan Bogdanovic? This would help with offense and shooting. If Bogdanovic doesn’t come off the bench, then who will? Questions would arise about the offensive ability of a bench that could include De’Andre Hunter, Kobe Bufkin and Mo Gueye. These are all questions that Landry Fields and other decision-makers in the Hawks front office should consider in the scenario where they take Sarr with the first pick and keep Okongwu. It’s unclear when Saddiq Bey will return from his injury (or if he’ll even be with the team next season) and other bench options could include Vit Krejci and AJ Griffin. Again, if Atlanta trades Murray, they would get players back and could fill those roles, but that’s hard to project at the moment.

The trio of Young, Johnson and Sarr possesses a ton of upside and if the Hawks front office decides they don’t think Okongwu would be a good fit alongside them, they could try to move him for someone who they believe them, would be better suited. . Could Atlanta package Dejounte Murray and Okongwu for Brandon Ingram? This is a possibility that needs to be thought about.

This draft may not contain a franchise-altering superstar player, but for a team like Atlanta, it contains the perfect complementary piece in Sarr. He would fill a huge defensive need with his ability to block shots and protect the rim, while also having the athleticism to guard the perimeter. His three-point shooting and rebounding might be slight concerns, but playing with an elite point guard like Trae Young would ease those concerns. A future lineup of Sarr, Young, Johnson and Okongwu could be the cornerstone of the Hawks franchise if they can make it work.