World Series Odds: Can the Houston Astros win the pennant? | Sports betting

Sports aren’t played on paper and the 2024 Houston Astros are the best current example of this age-old phrase. There’s talent on the team, and even though the Astros have been the villains of MLB over the past decade, there’s no denying their success. However, the 2024 World Series now appears to be a pipe dream for Houston.

A streak of seven consecutive appearances in the American League Championship Series is in serious jeopardy this year, however, after a 12-22 start to the season. What do the odds say about Houston’s chance to qualify for the 2024 Fall Classic?

Can the Houston Astros win the 2024 World Series?

Oddsmakers are showing way too much respect for the Astros with the final lines. FanDuel Sportsbook gives Houston a 15/1 chance to win the 2024 World Series. Those are the same odds as the defending champions Texas Rangers, who currently hold a seven-game lead over their AL West rivals.

FanGraphs currently gives the Astros a 40.2% chance of making the playoffs, eighth best in the American League. While that may seem positive after such a poor start, no team has seen a greater negative shift in playoff odds since the start of the campaign than Houston. Joe Espada’s group had an 86% chance before the season opener, that figure has now dropped significantly.

While the odds have the Astros in contention at +1500, this is simply conservative sports betting with 128 games remaining. Houston will get healthy at some point and bettors are careful not to correct the market too much for the dynasty, despite a slow start. It feels like the Golden State Warriors have had a good chance of winning the NBA Finals in recent years.

This prevents sharps from betting on the Astros at a certain value. Currently, odds of +1500 show a 6.25% implied probability that Houston will win the World Series. FanGraphs only gives them a fraction of that chance, at 3.6%. The Astros’ odds would have to drop to +2675 to match FanGraphs’ projections, which won’t happen unless they dig themselves an even deeper grave.

Even though Houston still looks like one of the best teams in the league, it’s tough to compete with a plethora of injuries and underperforming stars. There’s still plenty of time for the two-time World Series champions to turn things around and make a playoff push — I wouldn’t rule it out, either. However, to claim that they could challenge for a pennant at this point in the season would be ignorant.

Houston is not a value pick at +1500, and the sportsbooks have no intention of giving the public a reason to bet on the Astros. There are more realistic value plays at this point in the season, like the slightly better priced Baltimore Orioles (+1,100) and Seattle Mariners (+1,800).