Should Sabres Star Zach Benson Really Play in the NHL This Year?

When Zach Benson was selected by the Buffalo Sabres with the 13th overall pick in this summer’s NHL draft, it seemed like a steal. And now, given the 18-year-old’s performance in the exhibition games, it’s starting to look like a robbery by Buffalo.

The 5-foot-9 winger had two goals, five points and 10 scoring chances in five exhibition games. He blew away the Sabres management.

“There’s a lot of intangibles beyond skill,” Sabres coach Don Granato told reporters Saturday. “He’s competitive. He’s got sense, he feels. He’s situationally aware. He’s a very, very smart hockey player.”

Since Benson was drafted into the WHL, the NHL-CHL agreement prohibits him from playing in the AHL this year. There are only two options for Benson this season: stay with Buffalo or join the WHL’s Wenatchee Wild. Once Benson plays 10 NHL games, the first year of his three-year, entry-level contract will kick in. If he plays less than that, he will roll over to the following season.

Since Benson is skate on the team’s first line Alongside Jeff Skinner and Tage Thompson, it’s safe to assume that Benson is ready to play in the NHL. He’ll certainly start, but will he actually stick around all year? Barring a spectacular regular-season performance, he probably shouldn’t.

Over the past decade, only 25 players have played more than nine NHL games in their draft-plus-one (NP+1) season. Nineteen of those players were selected in the top 10. Three of the other six — Daniel Sprong, Stefan Matteau and Mikhail Grigorenko — were ultimately reassigned to junior mid-season, even after burning the first year of their entry-level contracts. The other three were David Pastrnak, Cole Sillinger and Jakob Chychrun. The latter two were arguably rushed to the NHL far too early. Pastrnak, who was able to start the year in the AHL, is a true outlier in this generation.

“You should never play an 18-year-old unless he’s exceptional and physically ready,” one NHL executive told Yahoo Sports.

Was Benson truly exceptional? He was impressive, sure, but this is preseason hockey.

Marco Rossi, the 10th overall pick in the 2020 draft, led the NHL in preseason scoring last year, recording nine points in five games. But once the regular season got underway, his offensive output faded, as he recorded just one point in 19 games before being reassigned to the AHL in late November. And in Benson’s case, we’d be remiss not to mention that he currently has an extremely unsustainable shooting percentage (33%) and only two of his points have come in 5-on-5 games.

The NHL regular season is a different story than the preseason, where games are fewer and farther between and the talent level varies. Regardless of what level he’s at this season, Benson needs to touch the puck, play in the top six and be “the guy.” With a prospect of this caliber, there’s no point in cutting corners.

And considering him as a top-six NHL option for an 82-game season is pretty short-sighted. Not to mention the considerable pressure that represents for a teenager.

Benson, at 163 pounds, is far from a finished product. In the NHL, Benson won’t be able to throw body checks as easily as he does in junior. Often, when prospects like Benson — who has 1.49 points per game over his last two seasons — do well in the preseason, there’s a misconception that the player is “too good” for junior. But the reality is that Benson needs to develop further and improve his skating. Benson may not play like a small player, but the reality is that his fearlessness won’t make up for the fact that he’ll constantly be out of sync in the deep end and in one-on-one battles. These things may seem like small things, but they matter. Especially when it comes to developing a development plan for a promising prospect.

It’s easy to foresee a scenario where Benson hits a wall once his momentum fades and his confidence starts to take a hit. What do you do when that inevitably happens? You can’t send him to the AHL, you could send him to junior, in theory, but that would be a giant “L” decision to keep him in the season, past the nine-game threshold. You certainly don’t want to do what the Seattle Kraken did with Shane Wright last season, when the 19-year-old was consistently left off the Kraken roster, played sporadically in the AHL during conditioning periods — which is allowed once a player has been left off enough consecutive games — before finally being sent to the OHL after the World Junior Championship.

It’s best for the Sabres to play it safe and use this strong preseason, and whatever his next nine NHL games entail, as a springboard to another solid year in junior.

Benson, along with Sabres prospect Matt Savoie, should join a Wild team that appears poised to make a strong run once again. He also has a chance to shine at the world junior championships, which would be invaluable experience.

In time, Benson will play a significant role in what is becoming a young and exciting Buffalo Sabres team. But that likely won’t be the case next season.