How would a Capela-Okongwu center rotation work in 2024-25?

One of the biggest topics of the Atlanta Hawks’ offseason has been the future of center Clint Capela. Given that the Hawks already have a promising young center on their roster in Onyeka Okongwu, retaining Capela at his $22.2 million salary seems like a luxury.

Capela is known to be available. Yahoo Sports NBA insider Jake Fischer mentioned after the draft that Atlanta was exploring trades involving Capela.

“The Hawks should certainly now evaluate trade options for Murray, All-Star point guard Trae Young, Clint Capela and the rest of their rostered players not named Jalen Johnson and Zaccharie Risacher, sources said.”

However, The Athletic’s John Hollinger believes Capela was not traded due to a lack of interest in his services. The Hawks have reportedly made calls, but teams simply don’t see him as a valuable player.

“Of course, I say all of this as if the Hawks are done trading. Really? The Clint Capela and De’Andre Hunter rumors have been circulating for ages, but the general consensus from league sources is that the Hawks can’t get a meaningful return for them.”

If the Hawks can’t get a good return for Capela, will they just keep him on the roster with Okongwu? Things are looking like that’s the most likely option, especially with the latest report that the Hawks have opted not to trade Capela in exchange for Brandon Ingram. William Guilory of The Athletic, who covers the Pelicans, revealed this in his latest report:

“It turned out Atlanta had no real desire to give Ingram his next contract or move one of its top two centers (Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu), according to league sources.”

With Capela negotiations seemingly at a standstill, the Hawks need to determine whether Capela can coexist with Okongwu on the roster in 2024-25. To me, the answer to that question is simple. Capela is still a good player, but preserving the status quo at center is a bad decision. If they can’t move Capela for what they believe is a fair value, the Hawks need to make a bold move and elevate Okongwu to the starting role.

The Hawks’ defense was frustrating again in 2023-24, finishing with the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league. While he’s the team’s defensive anchor, I think it’s reductive to pin all of that on Capela. Statistically, he recorded a 26.5% defensive rebounding percentage and ranked 19th in contested defensive rebound percentage. That percentage ranked 13th in the NBA, and he was still a top-10 center in blocked shots (5.1%). He also recorded a solid 58% defensive field goal percentage, meaning he forced opponents to shoot below league-average numbers. Simply put, he’s still a solid rebounder and shot blocker on defense.

Still, I think Okongwu should be a starter in 2024 for a few key reasons. One is simple: The Hawks need to understand what they have in Okongwu. He’s in the first year of a four-year, $62 million contract and has yet to sign a starting lineup. As a starter, he averaged 16.1 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.6 blocks over a small eight-game sample size. The only way the Hawks can determine if those numbers are indicative of future success is to give him more minutes.

On offense, Okongwu has room to grow that Capela lacks at this point in his career. As an offensive threat, Capela doesn’t offer much beyond offensive rebounding and running around the basket. He’s an elite offensive rebounder, leading the league in offensive rebounds with 4.6 per game. The problem is that his finishing around the basket has declined in recent years. He’s also not a three-point shooter, meaning his maximum offensive utility is as a pick-and-roll partner with Trae Young.

Okongwu showed signs of a more developed game. He finished with a 33% three-point shooting percentage, but made 80% of his free throws and 60% of his field goals. I think these are all encouraging signs for his development as a shooter. Defenses need to pay some attention to him from three-point range, which they don’t with Capela. Additionally, he pairs well with Jalen Johnson as a passer and makes good decisions. His 8.4% turnover percentage is in the 37th percentile in the league.

Defensively, Okongwu is lesser-known than Capela. Rebounding and blocking are all obvious strengths of Capela. Okongwu is a solid defender with the awareness to bring good off-ball defense and the intelligence to play good post defense. Even if he had a down season defensively in 2023-24, it’s unlikely that the defensive potential he showed in his previous two seasons is gone. I’d argue that’s more due to team context than a big decline in his own individual skills. Additionally, he showed growth as a rebounder in 2023-24, finishing in the 70th percentile among bigs in offensive rebounds.

Playing Okongwu with Capela is also not a viable option. While the Hawks had a positive net rating of +5.3 with both on the court, it would block the emergence of Zaccharie Risacher and lineups with both players having logged just 132 minutes on the court. Since Jalen Johnson is clearly the second option on the court, it makes more sense to play players who are a good fit for him. The five-man lineup of Bogdanovic-Young-Okongwu-Bey-Johnson had a net rating of +13.7 last year, which lends some credence to the idea that Okongwu fits better alongside Young and Johnson. Conversely, virtually every lineup that Johnson and Capela have been in has had a negative net rating.

While the idea of ​​having a backup center earning over $20 million is a tough sell, Okongwu’s potential and his fit with the team’s stars make a strong case for starting him. The biggest concern with his starting role is his foul propensity, but his foul count (per 48 minutes) has declined in every season of his career.

Putting Capela in a backup role would also decrease Capela’s chances of getting injured, preserving him for a potential trade at the trade deadline. If the Hawks are forced to choose an imperfect option, they should make a decision that maximizes the talent on their roster by capitalizing on Okongwu’s potential and starting him.