Bijan Robinson, RB of the Atlanta Falcons

• Bijan Robinson does the hard things well, but now he has to do the easy things: Robinson was one of the league’s best running backs last season on less-than-perfectly blocked runs, when he had to change points of attack or face an eight-man box.

• The offensive line is ideal: The Atlanta Falcons retained their five starting offensive linemen, all of whom have high positive carry rates, which should lead to more big plays from Robinson.

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Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

The Player Profile Series provides the most detailed view of a player possible by using the best data points available to PFF to examine the player’s performance, the competition the player faces for touches and the impact of other teammates and coaches on each player’s performance.

Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Monday, July 8

Player Performances

Robinson had decent volume in both the run and pass game to be excited about his sophomore season.

On the run, his 12.6 rushing attempts per game aren’t what you’d expect from a top-tier running back. His attempts have kept most of his cumulative rushing stats average, but overall, he’s played well on a play-by-play basis. Interestingly, he’s averaged more yards per carry against an eight-man box than a seven-man box, which isn’t something that should continue this season. He’s also done a good job compared to most running backs when he’s had to switch points of attack or when there aren’t perfectly blocked plays.

Overall, he did a good job in the tough phases but didn’t dominate the easy phases as well as we would have hoped. He should be able to do better in his second season.

As a receiver, it was a bit of an opposite. He had the bulk to maximize his fantasy production, but not the efficiency. Robinson was the best running back we’ve seen coming out of college in recent years, thanks in part to his receiving. Our draft guide that year said he was “like any other receiver when split.” Part of his 2024 projection includes the belief that he can better reach his potential, which would mean a much higher receiving grade, yards per route run, and therefore fantasy production in the passing game.

Touch competition

If Robinson plays the same number of snaps as he did last season, he would have a chance to have a great season. He was on the field for at least 60% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps in all situations, and the numbers below include the game he barely played due to a migraine. He didn’t get the ball enough when he was on the field, which kept him from being a top-five fantasy player as a rookie.

Tyler Allgeier will be his primary backup for a second straight season. Allgeier was mostly in clear rushing situations last season, so he was getting the ball a lot when he was on the field. He has been rated higher than Robinson in both the run and pass game so far. It’s worth keeping an eye on how much Allgeier plays with the starters in training camp. Robinson’s usage in the passing game is no doubt, but if the coaching staff prefers Allgeier as a rusher, that could quickly push Robinson out of the first round by ADP.

The Falcons spent a sixth-round pick on Jase McClellan in the draft and don’t have much running back experience beyond that on the depth chart. If Robinson or Allgeier were injured at any point this season, we could see the other play close to 100% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps.

Impact of teammates

Bijan Robinson The linemen should benefit from playing behind one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the NFL. While most linemen have fairly high negative play rates, they also have some of the best positive blocking linemen. While negative blocking leads to runs for little to no gain, positive blocking can help spark big runs. For fantasy football, it’s generally better to have a few bad runs and a few huge runs than a bunch of decent runs. As mentioned above, Robinson hasn’t taken advantage of this as much as he could have, so a little improvement in play could lead to some monstrous numbers in the run game.

It’s also worth noting that the Falcons’ entire offensive line from last season is back, and every member of that line played at least 800 offensive snaps on the year. Some members of the line have been playing together for multiple years at this point. The more an offensive line plays together, the better it is for its grades and for the team. team as a wholeso having that offensive line is one of the main reasons Robinson has a chance at RB1 this season.

The Falcons added Zac Robinson from the The Los Angeles Rams (and the PFF analytics team before that), which could be really good or really bad for his fantasy value. If he follows Sean McVay’s philosophy, the team should have a clear lead. The Rams had Todd Gurley II, Cam Akers, Kyren Williams and others play a leading role in the attack. If it is Bijan Robinsonthat’s great, but there’s also at least a chance that it’s Tyler Allgeier while Bijan Robinson He becomes more of a receiver. It’s also possible that Zac Robinson won’t follow in McVay’s footsteps in the running back rotation.

The Rams also didn’t prioritize passing to running backs, but they also had a number of great receivers, including Cooper Kupp And Puka Nacuaand haven’t had a running back as versatile as Robinson. It’s possible we’ll see him run the ball more this year than last, but that comes at the expense of production, which could do more harm than good in PPR leagues.

In conclusion

Robinson has a real chance to have a breakout season if he gets more out of his offensive line and improves as a receiver. He should be considered a first-round pick because he has the potential to be a Christian McCaffrey-esque season if all goes well, but his ADP could go into freefall if Tyler Allgeier plays too much with the starters in training camp.

Footnotes

• Statistics in charts and graphs have typically been chosen based on their ability to predict future fantasy performance, either on a per-game or per-opportunity basis, or chosen for their ability to describe the player relative to other players at the same position.
• Opportunities for this are defined by passing dropbacks, rushing attempts, and receiving routes run.
• The numbers are either per season or based on the last three years. For starters, only college numbers are included. For non-starters, only NFL numbers are included, even if they played in college in the last three years.
• Given that college competition is relatively easier than NFL competition, it can be expected that most rookies will see their numbers decline from their historical numbers.
• For all charts in this article, the colors range from blue (good or high) to red (bad or low).
• All percentiles or colors compare the given player to other players with a high sample size of opportunities. Typically, this is one-third of the possible opportunities given by the sample. If the player in question does not have enough opportunities, they are still compared, even though a player may look good or bad on this small sample size which might not be as predictive.
• Information on usage classifications and the importance of running backs can be found here, receiver here And tight end here.