Giants-Atlanta Series Preview – July 2024

Alex Anthopoulos spent most of the offseason being praised for his talent in developing Atlanta’s roster and his foresight in securing key pieces. He had been hailed as a dynasty builder with just one World Series under his belt, and it would be hard to argue with that; the assemblage of young talent, controlled by long-term, owner-friendly contracts, created a formidable opponent. They disappointed a bit this year, but they remain a tough team.

That’s the problem with plans. Sometimes they don’t work out anymore. poufThe San Francisco Giants have made a lot plans for this offseason and even once the season starts — plans within plans! — and they all evaporated before their eyes. There were no plans after Spencer Bivens the other day and he surprised us all with a mind-blowing 5-inning performance against the Dodgers. As spectators and weirdos in cheap seats/blogs, we have the luxury of simply asking ourselves, “What now?” and having no wrong answers because our thoughts on the subject have no bearing on reality — but the team has to answer the question.

Atlanta isn’t the best team in the NL East, and they’ve suffered two crucial injuries – Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider – that virtually guarantee they’ll be a Wild Card team this season; but, this is still baseball, and it’s plausible that anything can happen, especially when it comes to talent. The Phillies are coming off losses to Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, and while they may not be out for a long time, the lead in the East is 8 games; Atlanta has been very hot at home (26-14 on the season; 8-3 in June) and this series against the Giants kicks off a 6-game home series where the final three will be against Philadelphia.

Why should this concern the Giants? Well, after finishing the season 19-9 in April, Atlanta is just 27-27, but They especially had the Giants, who have had a poor road record (20-22 on the season; 6-10 in June). The Wild Card is set up so that the fittest teams win it in the final month or so, but what about the teams that easily clinched a Wild Card spot? Could they get fit enough that the power of faith and the collapse of the team ahead of them gives them a division instead? The Giants could be facing a team on the runway.

The fact that this comes after arguably the most exciting series of this season (so far) certainly creates a situation where the Giants won’t be able to hold onto any of this. amazing moment. They haven’t won a season series against Atlanta since 2016, and they’re 8-12 at Truist Park since it opened in 2017. But there’s still reason for optimism. The Giants will be throwing their best starters in the field. The bullpen had the benefit of a legitimate day off Monday, and hitting in Georgia in July will even help the Giants’ at-bats — BUT!

Wait a second. Atlanta’s .243/.308/.401 average is a 100 wRC+, exactly the league average. The Giants’ .247/.317/.391 average is 5% better than the league average (105 wRC+). They’re… a better batting team? That’s a surprise. Atlanta has some offensive surprises in their favor, but the loss of Acuna Jr. really hurt them this season, along with some disappointing performances.

Atlanta wins it all back with their pitching. Not only is their team ERA the fourth-best team ERA in MLB (3rd in the NL), it’s literally a full point better than the Giants’ (4.50). The FIP matchup is half as sharp: Atlanta’s team FIP is 3.50 to the Giants’ 3.92. Despite some music box pitching, they’ve allowed the second-lowest HR/9 (0.86), behind the Phillies (0.80). And even without Spencer Strider, their 9.11 team K/9 is No. 1 in the NL (#2 in MLB). They’re also pretty good at getting ground balls (45.7% – No. 3 in MLB; Giants #1 – 49.4%).

This kicks off a 6-game road trip and a 12-game series before the All-Star break that will test the Giants’ mettle. It’s probably the toughest way to start a road trip outside of Dodger Stadium, Yankee Stadium or Camden Park, but remember, even if the Giants go 0-12, they’re still in the Wild Card race.

Series details

WHO: San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves
Or: Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia
When: Tuesday (4:20 p.m. PT), Wednesday (4:20 p.m. PT), Thursday (4:20 p.m. PT)
National broadcasts: Simulcast on MLB Network (Thursday)

The intended holders
Tuesday: Hayden Birdsong vs. Reynaldo Lopez
Wednesday: Jordan Hicks vs. Chris Sale
Thursday: Logan Webb vs. Charlie Morton

Where they are located
Braves, 46-36 (4th in NLC, +3.5 WC), 354 RS / 301 RA | Last 10 games: 5-5
Giants, 41-44 (4th in NLW, -3.0 WC), 380 RS / 409 RA | Last 10 games: 5-5

Braves to watch

Adam Duvall: It seems the tattered security blanket this former Giant has provided Atlanta over the years has finally gotten too torn. His .161/.244/.291 line is abysmal, and in the second half of June (14 games; 50 PA) he was even worse: .146/.180/.167 with 20 strikeouts against just 2 walks. Swings and misses and low walk totals have always been a part of his game, but he was just finishing two He had more hits in June (a home run and a double). He seems more likely to be benched before this series than play in it, but if that’s the case, you wouldn’t want to see him finally show some signs of life against his original team. In 42 career games, he has hit 11 home runs and has an .837 OPS.

Chris Vente: It was a wild trade made during the offseason that most People quickly realized that Atlanta’s largesse was beneficial. Basically, the team’s finances and depth of talent were considered to be in such good shape that they could afford to absorb the potential downside of adding Sale to the team. He finally returned to make 20 starts for the Red Sox last season after years of health issues. This season, he already has 15 starts and is showing many of the things that made him a perennial Cy Young candidate from 2012-18. He has struck out 118 batters in 93.2 innings (11.3 K/9) and has allowed fewer walks (1.6 BB/9) than his career average (2.1). Home runs haven’t been a big issue either — just 7 allowed this year. The Giants TO DO have the best wRC+ against left-handed pitchers (121; 5th in MLB).

Reynaldo Lopez and Marcell Ozuna: I’m not mentioning these two because I want to highlight a domestic abuser in Ozuna, but because I want to draw comparisons to the Giants. Lopez is a closer converted into a starter a la Jordan Hicks. He’s also a 5-inning player, but overall he’s having a better season (2.2 fWAR to Hicks’ 0.6). Meanwhile, Ozuna as Atlanta’s designated hitter has been one of the best hitters in the sport, and contrasted with the Giants’ full-time designated hitter and former Brave Jorge Soler, it probably won’t seem like an equal match at all and will serve as a reminder that the Giants are doing the “poor man’s” version of what successful teams do.

Giants to watch

Michel Conforto: I like the former Met against the former division rival in a hitter-friendly stadium. Like Adam Duvall, he’s been largely bad in June, hitting .167/.241/.333 over his last 54 PAs. But! If you really want to be a home run guy, and you should, since this is a Giants fan blog: he’s 6 for his last 19 with 2 doubles, a triple and a home run. So… maybe he’s starting to heat up? That would be nice.

Giants starting pitchers: It’s not just that the bullpen has been put through its paces, it’s that these three pitchers are the best on the team right now. You’ll forgive Hayden Birdsong if he gets crushed in his second major league start by a veteran lineup and Hicks might be out of gas, but Logan Webb throwing a gem on the road would certainly serve as proof that the Giants are a legitimate baseball team.

Jorge Soler: His career average in Atlanta’s new home: .294/.413/.532 with 9 home runs in 173 career plate appearances. He had an .845 OPS in 109 plate appearances in June, so there’s a legal case to be made that he’s on a hot streak. Let’s see if that continues.

Prediction time