Three Astros takeaways: Justin Verlander’s future, Joe Espada’s bullpen management, and more

HOUSTON — Baseball’s hottest team is above .500 for the first time this season, led by the kind of month that could make the Houston Astros a legitimate playoff contender.

The Astros went 17-8 in June, buoyed by the resurgence of Alex Bregman and Hunter Brown and a bullpen that has become one of the best in baseball. Houston has won nine of its last 10 games, including an improbable 10-5 victory Sunday against the Guided by the grimace New York Mets.

Kyle Tucker played in just two of the team’s 25 games in June. Justin Verlander was placed on injured reserve before their June 13 game. Still, Houston stayed afloat and slipped to within 3 1/2 games of the lead in the American League West Division. Here are three takeaways from the final week of Houston’s Fabulous Month.

Verlander’s uncertain future

Doubting Verlander is dangerous, but even he can’t extend a schedule. The clock is ticking for Verlander to throw 140 innings and trigger his $35 million player option for the 2025 season, which leaves us wondering what his future holds.

Verlander has pitched 57 1/3 innings in his first 10 starts of the season. When he’ll reach his 11th is anyone’s guess. Other than saying Verlander is “feeling better,” the Astros have not provided any substantive updates on his condition. Verlander has referred all questions to the team, which insists the injury is just a neck issue.

Monday is the Astros’ 84th game of the season and the first day Verlander can be activated from the injured list. He did not accompany the team on the first leg of its 10-game, three-city road trip and is not among Houston’s probables for the four-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays.

On Sunday, general manager Dana Brown said Verlander had returned to playing catch, but suggested he would need extended preparation. It’s almost a given that Verlander will need at least one minor league rehab assignment before returning to the major league rotation.

A return before the All-Star break is still possible, but even if Verlander does, he won’t have any margin for error if he plans to pitch 140 innings.

The fact that Verlander has completed only six innings in five of his first 10 starts leaves little hope that he can work long enough to complete the remaining 82 2/3 innings. Last season, Verlander pitched 92 1/3 innings in 15 starts after the All-Star break. Five of those starts saw him work seven or more innings.

If Verlander doesn’t make the cutoff and becomes a free agent, Houston’s 2025 rotation will include Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco with Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss looming as upper minor league depth.

A veteran starter shouldn’t be Houston’s first priority, but signing one seems prudent given the depth issues the team has faced over the past two seasons.

If owner Jim Crane remains involved in baseball operations decisions, a reunion with Verlander can’t be ruled out. Crane already authorized an extension for Verlander before the 2019 season, a free-agent contract before the 2021 season and, in August, engineered the trade that brought Verlander to Houston.

The fact that Verlander left in the first place also can’t be overlooked. Crane oversaw baseball operations that winter after James Click was fired, but saw Verlander sign a two-year, $86.6 million contract with the New York Mets.

Verlander’s value won’t be anywhere near what it was after the 2022 season, which may put Crane in a position where he’s much more comfortable with a player he likes to have on his team.

Espada’s Bullpen Management

The first 83 games of Joe Espada’s managerial career provided a glimpse into some of his philosophies, some of which he had to modify. Starting 7-19 forced Espada to manage with more urgency than anyone could have imagined, sometimes to the detriment of convention.

Since May 24, closer Josh Hader has made six ninth-inning appearances with a four-run lead. During that same span, setup men Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly have combined for seven appearances in games Houston led by at least four runs.

Josh Hader picked up his 12th save Saturday with a scoreless ninth inning in Houston’s 9-6 win over the Mets. (Luke Hales/Getty Images)

Typically, high-upside relievers are reserved for teams with a lead of three points or less, although forward-thinking franchises and managers are flexible. Houston’s circumstances forced Espada to be that and more.

“We just have to make sure we get the win.” We have players in the back of our bullpen — even our middle relievers — that I feel comfortable giving the ball to at any point in the game,” Espada said Wednesday.

“To me, it’s not philosophical, it’s just that we’re in a position where we have to try to get to .500. We’ve got guys that are rested, so we’re just trying to secure those wins.”

Houston won this afternoon’s game against the Colorado Rockies to reach .500 for the first time this season. The six-run victory spared Espada any tough decisions about his bullpen, but the looming battle to stay at .500 will test him. It’s clear the team only really trusts Abreu, Pressly and Hader in close games.

The emergence of Tayler Scott could allow Espada to not rely as much on the three established leverage relievers. Trusting Rafael Montero would make things even easier, but opponents have a .583 slugging percentage and 1.039 OPS against him since May 17.

Abreu made his 39th appearance of the season on Sunday. Only seven relievers entered the day with more. Hader made 35 appearances, four of which included multiple innings, a departure from his last two seasons.

Scott woke up Sunday as one of 16 relievers who have already pitched 40 innings this year. He added two more in Houston’s extra-innings win over the Mets, lowering his ERA to 1.49. Factoring in the number of times Scott has warmed up without getting into a game, he’s among the most heavily used relievers on the team. Espada is much more likely to throw his bullpen relievers twice than Dusty Baker, which adds another problem to this dilemma.

Warming up two pitchers at once means the club is prepared for any game scenario, but the impact it will have on the arm that isn’t being used is a legitimate question. There’s a balance to be struck. Having Montero pitch more like someone making $11.5 million would also help.

The Montero Problem

Only eight major league relievers make more money than Montero, who was not used in the Astros’ eight-man bullpen game Sunday against the Mets.

The release of José Abreu leaves Montero the only remaining piece of Crane’s ill-fated tenure as director of baseball operations. The day after Click was fired in 2022, Crane engineered a three-year, $34.5 million contract for Montero, a man with an 88 ERA and 1.45 career WHIP.

According to Baseball Reference, Montero is worth minus 0.4 wins above replacement since signing his contract. Add that to the minus-1.6 bWAR accumulated by Abreu, and it appears Crane may have misallocated the $93 million he handed out.

Montero’s struggles are stunning, but nowhere near as pronounced as Abreu’s. The Astros are also better equipped to mask Montero’s presence on the roster, but Sunday must have offered a sobering portrait of his position in the reliever pecking order. Bryan King and Luis Contreras, two rookies with a total of five major league appearances, appeared in the game against him.

Montero has a 6.08 FIP and a 4.45 ERA, which suggests he has benefited from some luck. He’s thrown once in the team’s last five games, a 28-pitch outing Friday that may have impacted his availability for Sunday. The fact that Scott pitched for a third straight day, however, suggests that it was all hands on deck except Montero.

The urgency with which Espada and the Astros must handle the rest of the season doesn’t leave much room for Montero to resolve his issues except as part of his cleanup duties. Espada has also shown far less deference to veteran players than his predecessor. Sunday is a perfect example.

Montero’s misery puts undue pressure on the rest of an already loaded bullpen. Finding a team willing to take on Montero at the trade deadline will be difficult, putting the onus on the pitcher himself to find his place in the mix.

(Top photo by Justin Verlander: Erik Williams/USA Today)