Bills must give QB Josh Allen that ‘easy button’ in 2024 NFL season

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Josh Allen is the driving force behind the Buffalo Bills offense and team. He is a one-of-a-kind player with remarkable talent.

It also needs easier buttons.

Under former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, many fans wondered why everything seemed so difficult offensively despite the team consistently winning games. Many statistics during Dorsey’s tenure were great, leading many national media outlets to question Dorsey’s firing. If the team performs well in many areas of analysis, why change?

Sean McDermott and the Bills decided to part ways with Dorsey because there were a number of issues that made the offense too dependent on the exploits of one Josua Patrick Allen. While Allen is incredible, there’s no reason why “Josh, be great” should be the only answer in the playbook.

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Allen has often been compared to former NFL MVP Cam Newton as a player, mainly because they are tall, athletic humans who are essentially unstoppable when running the ball. Bills fans cringe at the comparison, as Newton’s career has been derailed by injuries that have sapped much of his immense talent, and that’s not the career path anyone in Bills Mafia wants for the most talented quarterback in franchise history. The Bills need to incorporate more schematic efficiencies into their offense so that faith in Allen’s miracles is retained in truly desperate times, like against Kansas City in the playoffs, thank you. Allen needs simpler buttons.

Many elements of football are called “easy buttons” for passers. Having a good racing game is a simple button push. Having a top-10 wide receiver is a simple button flip. Having a tight end who knows how to get open coverage versus zone is a push button. Performing a game action is a simple button push, and that’s what we’re focusing on here.

For the 35 2023 quarterbacks who had 50 or more non-play-action pass attempts AND 50 or more play-action pass attempts, the average EPA/ATT improvement was 0.176 per play-action attempt. EPA stands for Expected Points Added, and it’s an advanced statistic that essentially measures how close the offense came to scoring as a result of that play based on factors like down and distance, time of play, and field position. To put that 0.176 into context by analogy, play-action took a player like Jarret Stidham and turned his performance into that of Brock Purdy on a play-by-play basis. One can quibble that Purdy is simply a product of his offensive system, but there’s no denying that his production isn’t significantly more impressive than Stidham’s.

Play action works primarily because it forces linebackers and other run defenders to consider the run before they can attack the pass. While this may seem simplistic, NFL athletes are dynamic enough that a split-second of hesitation or a half-step in the wrong direction can be maximized by the opposing offense. Moving a linebacker up a notch or making him wait a half-second before jumping into his coverage responsibility can create a throwing lane or disrupt a pass rush to allow space and time to make a completion that might otherwise go incomplete or attempted. Making linebackers or any other defenders mess up is why play action is an easy button.

Not surprisingly, Allen is good at both techniques. He ranked 10th out of 35 QBs in EPA/ATT without play action at -0.026, and he ranked sixth with play action at 0.244. That means Allen improved .270 EPA/ATT with game action in 2023. The best EPA/Game in 2023 according to Sumer Sports was Purdy with 0.31. This number is slightly different because it includes Prudy’s rushing stats, but giving Allen game action equaled the second-most efficient QB play in the NFL in 2023.

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The graph above shows how much better or worse skilled QBs were with play actions than without. Although Allen didn’t show the greatest improvement with play actions (he finished tied for the 12th greatest increase with play actions with Derek Carr), the increase is undeniable.

(Also, as a football fan, watch Lamar Jackson’s jump with a play action! Every time the Ravens used a play action, they were about to add a half point to their score. C ‘crazy.)

The league as a whole should use play action more often – its impact doesn’t diminish with repetition because each play is its own universe, and the defense must respect the run every time, regardless of whether it saw the action zero times or 15 times. Allen finished 18th in percentage of throws including play action from this group of quarterbacks, and part of new full-time offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s job should be to give him more access to that easy button.

Check out related video content from Cover 1: Josh Allen’s Top 10 Shots of 2023 Season

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