Beryl is getting stronger – hurricane warning for the Caribbean and USA

Tropical Storm Beryl has formed and has the potential to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. Given the trends and uncertainty, anyone in the Eastern Caribbean, Jamaica, and even the Gulf Coast of the U.S. or Mexico should be on alert over the next 0 to 14 days. Here’s what you need to know about Beryl as it gains strength.

According to the National Hurricane Center’s discussion Saturday morning, “Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen and become a hurricane by the time it reaches the Leeward Islands late Sunday night or Monday.” If you currently live in or vacation in these islands, expect hurricane-force winds, heavy rains, and dangerous ocean conditions. A wise and hardworking brother from Alpha Phi Alpha fraternity has already texted me, as his family is currently vacationing in Anguilla.

The discussion continues: “Barbados is currently under a hurricane warning. Additional hurricane and tropical storm warnings and possibly warnings for parts of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands will likely be required later today.” Beyond the immediate threat, the country’s top hurricane experts are also urging stakeholders in the western and central Caribbean to monitor the system as well. They also warn: “There is a great deal of uncertainty on days 4 and 5, and one should not focus on the specific details of the forecast track or intensity.”

If you’re wondering, “Isn’t it too early to be talking about the first hurricane of the season?”, the answer is yes. According to NOAA, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season usually forms around August 11. Beryl’s formation region is also unusual for this time of year. When a tropical cyclone forms in late June, it’s usually in the Gulf of Mexico or near the Bay of Campeche. Beryl formed in the main development region of the Atlantic Ocean. We usually expect MDR storms much later in the season.

Dr. Matthew Rosencrans is the lead hurricane season forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. In an excellent blog, he writes: “This year, NOAA is forecasting a very high probability (85%) of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season (2), with 17-25 named storms (average 14), 8-13 hurricanes (average 7), and 4-7 major hurricanes (average 3). He points to several key factors:

• Reduction in wind shear at altitude due to the onset of La Niña.
• Very high sea surface temperatures in the MDR and the entire Atlantic basin.
• A stronger West African monsoon that influences the easterly winds associated with the formation of late-season tropical cyclones.

Why are experts like me concerned about Beryl? It will likely develop into a hurricane within the next few hours, and many people in the eastern Caribbean may not be prepared or accustomed to such a storm in June. In addition, the following statement from the National Hurricane Center is noteworthy. They write: “Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the western tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean are unusually favorable for strengthening, and rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS model indicate a significant probability of rapid intensification.” Some model advisories even predict that Beryl could reach major hurricane status, Category 3 or higher.

After three days, there is uncertainty due to the models and possible influences of stronger wind shear. Models also differ. For the interests of the U.S. Gulf Coast and Mexico, this storm could definitely play a role in the second week of July, so keep a close eye on its development. Where it ultimately goes and its future status will likely depend on the strength with which it exits the central Caribbean region. Our best models currently have differing views.

My best advice is to listen to credible experts and avoid the wishful thinkers. The National Hurricane Center is always my first port of call. Incidentally, they also monitor other systems in the Atlantic basin. Ben Noll, a meteorologist at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in New Zealand, is right. It’s going to be a long season.