Should the Buffalo Sabers consider a Jeff Skinner buyout?

BUFFALO, N.Y. — The Buffalo Sabers are entering what could be a career-defining offseason for general manager Kevyn Adams, who has led Buffalo’s latest rebuilding effort for four years. The franchise’s playoff drought extended to an NHL-record 13 seasons, prompting Adams to fire coach Don Granato and replace him with Sabers legend Lindy Ruff. Over the next few weeks, Adams will have to reshape the Sabers’ roster in Ruff’s image. This might include some subtractions.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported Tuesday that “rumor has been flying” around the NHL that there is a “possibility” the Sabers could use a buyout for forward Jeff Skinner. Skinner, 32, is entering the sixth season of an eight-year, $72 million contract he signed in 2019. He set career highs with 47 assists and 82 points during the 2022 season- 23, but fell back to earth with just 46 points in 74 games in 2023-24. By the end of the season, Skinner was no longer playing on the team’s first line with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch and was instead skating on the third line. He has no goals and one assist in Buffalo’s last 13 games.

Skinner’s $9 million cap hit was never a bargain for the Sabres, but it was tolerable when he had 145 points combined in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons. But heading into an offseason in which the Sabers are trying to make the playoffs, draft space and roster spots will be limited. How Ruff views Skinner’s integration into Buffalo’s roster could also play a role. Skinner has always been a talented scorer, but Ruff stressed the need for the Sabers to improve their team’s defense next season. Skinner’s play away from the puck has never been his strength.

However, it is important to consider the financial implications of a Skinner buyout. Skinner has $22 million in salary remaining on his contract, and the actual amount for a buyout would be $14.67 million. Here’s a look at CapFriendly on the salary cap implications of a buyout this offseason. Values ​​are in millions.

If owner Terry Pegula is willing to pay that money, the cap calculation makes sense. The $6.4 million cap hit in 2026-27 is the larger number, but even that should be manageable if the cap continues to rise as planned. The Sabers are entering a window in which there is an urgency to win. So the benefit of the $7.5 million in savings this season and the $4.5 million in savings next season could outweigh the downside of the more modest savings in 2026-27 and the additional three years of a loss of $2.4 million. Taking a $6.4 million cap hit in 2026-27 to not have Skinner on the team is significant, but Adams’ job security could depend on the Sabers’ success this season. The short-term gain in terms of cap flexibility could therefore be worth it. CapFriendly has the Sabers with just over $23 million in cap space, but their actual spending power is closer to $13 million when accounting for some of the internal cap activity that ‘They have to manage with their own players.

Purchasing Skinner next offseason is also an option. The cap math is improving for the Sabres, but not dramatically, as CapFriendly points out here. Values ​​are in millions.

The Sabers get Skinner off the books faster in this scenario, but they also have to pay him the full $9 million in 2024-25 and figure out where to play him. Fellow wings JJ Peterka and Zach Benson passed him on the depth chart last season. Jack Quinn is also back to good health. And the Sabers could add from outside. Having an extra roster spot and an extra $7.5 million to spend would be a nice boost and a sign that the Sabers are serious about changing their roster.

The other avenue the Sabers could explore is trade. But Skinner has a total no-movement clause and has often spoken about how comfortable he feels in Buffalo. He’s from just outside of Toronto, so he’s close to family and friends. Any trade would have to start by convincing Skinner to waive his no-move clause. Adams would also have to find a willing trade partner for a player who has lost some value due to his contract and recent performance. The Sabers could keep up to 50 percent of Skinner’s remaining salary in a trade, leaving them with $4.5 million in savings over the next three years. But this contract could mean the Sabers would have to attach an asset to Skinner just to move him. Adams would need to find a team willing to absorb that salary and a Skinner willing to play.

The NHL buyout period begins 48 hours after the end of the Stanley Cup Final and ends at 5 p.m. on June 30. Any decision by the Sabers will therefore have to be made in the coming weeks. And it’s a decision that will directly impact every other decision Adams makes in what should be an eventful offseason for the Sabres.

(Photo: Timothy T. Ludwig / USA Today)