Atlanta Falcons 2024 Fantasy Preview

Stats 2023 (Ranking)

Points per game: 18.9 (26th)
Total yards per game: 334.3 (17th)
Played per match: 64.2 (13th)
Pass attempts + sacks per game: 33.5 (26th)
Dropback EPA per play: -0.03 (22nd)
Rushing attempts per game: 30.7 (3rd)
Rush EPA per play: -0.17 (28th)

Coaching staff

It’s difficult to demonstrate the magnitude of Arthur Smith’s personality as Falcons head coach, even though Fantasy managers know there is no better avatar than his (mis)use of Bijan Robinson. He was a heavy-handed, sloppy coach who…didn’t introduce his first-round running back. No more. Smith is no longer there and Zac Robinson, Sean McVay’s sidekick, is there. McVay’s disciples haven’t been a monolithic force as head coaches, but they have tended to take balanced offensive approaches. “Balance” would be a huge improvement for a team whose success rate relative to expectations was -9% last season, by far the lowest in the league. “Libra” isn’t exactly what comes to mind when you hear Kirk Cousins ​​either. If you think attempts are a quarterback stat, you know that the Falcons’ passing volume won’t just increase “after Art,” it will skyrocket.

passing game

QB: Kirk Cousins, Michael Penix
WR: Drake London, KhaDarel Hodge
WR: Darnell Mooney, Casey Washington
WR: Rondale Moore, Ray-Ray McCloud
TE: Kyle Pitts, Charlie Woerner, Ross Dwelley

661. That’s how many passes Cousins ​​completed last season, even if you include his heartbreaking Week 8, where he threw “only” 31 balls. (League leader Sam Howell had 612). This, after Cousins ​​finished fourth in attempts in 2022. There’s reason to believe he won’t be as prolific in 2024. Again, there’s that balance generally preferred by McVay’s assistants. It’s also a supporting cast that isn’t as fantastic as the winter hype would have you believe. The receiving corps would be ridiculously thin without Darnell Mooney, For example. Last but not least, Cousins’ buried father will turn 36 in August as he works his way back from his aforementioned torn Achilles tendon.

But. But… he’s going to throw, y’all. A lot. There’s simply no way around it with Cousins, whose career-low in attempts per game is 30. His second-lowest mark for a full season is 32. Third, 34. He has averaged 37 since 2021. Throwing in the yard is what he signed on to do for a team that could no longer stand Desmond Ridder’s self-imposed prison. The Falcons want to return to the 21st century.

There’s talent to work with, but it’s not exactly a Justin Jefferson/TJ Hockenson/Jordan Addison skill corps. Drake London hopes to at least make this interesting. By far the biggest loser from the Falcons’ “Ridder ball” approach, London enters year three with a good but not great career mark of 1.96 yards per route run. If the routes tended to go nowhere under Arthur Smith, the catches were little better. Of the 96 receivers with at least 50 receptions since 2023, London’s 12.6 yards per grab ranks 46th. His average 2.8 yards after the catch last season ranked 81st. The environment undoubtedly played a role, but London is a 1-on-1 jump-ball maestro who generally doesn’t rack up yards after contact. This means that it absolutely needs to be presented more at the border. It was never that of the cousins speciality, but he is not afraid to walk either. Miserable 25th among receiver targets last season at 109, London should see that number increase to at least 130, while 150-160 is eminently realistic. London is a WR2 on the rise who could crack the top 12.

The No. 2 receiver is not Mooney, but Kyle Pitts. The fearsome and infamous Kyle Pitts. The No. 4 pick in the 2021 draft lost 1,000 yards as a rookie but has just 1,023 in 27 games since. Slowed by an MCL injury in 2022 each of the last two years, Pitts’ yards per route run dropped from an elite tight end mark of 2.02 to 1.69 to 1.43. He was essentially a downfield specialist – his ADOT was two yards higher than any other TE – catch-and-drop specialist in the Falcons’ moribund offense in 2023, recording a shocking 41st in average yards after the catch among tight ends. Pitts has lost both his health and his mojo, and he’s counting on Robinson and Cousins ​​to bring the latter back. Cousins ​​has never shied away from targeting the seam — he directed 27% of his 2023 attempts that way — but more importantly, Cousins ​​still sticks to his primary weapons. As long as Pitts is healthy and getting open — he was 10th in ESPN’s open tight end scoring in 2022 before slumping last season — Cousins ​​is going to give him the ball. Pitts’ struggles can’t be entirely explained by its poor surroundings, but things are about to take a 180 turn for 2024.

That brings us to Mooney, who can feel like the most underrated or overrated receiver in the league depending on the day. Mooney only reached 100 targets and 1,000 yards once in four NFL seasons — his second-highest yardage total is 631 — but his setup was positively Arthur Smith-ian in Chicago. You still would have liked to see him catch more than 31 balls for 414 yards last season, a pathetic average of 0.89 yards per route. Mooney’s theoretical rebound is based on his elite speed, improved quarterback play and lack of targeted competition. That might be a bit too much “what if” for you, but Mooney was treated like a WR5 afterthought by even the most savvy summer drafters. It’s a risk-free end-of-round dart throw.

Zeroer and later it was Rondale Moore, who would battle for the No. 3 job after the Cardinals threw in the towel following three disappointing, injury-marred campaigns. A slot-only option due to his nonexistent size, Moore will benefit from a quarterback upgrade from a throwing and point guard catching standpoint. (We’ll save the overall Kyler/Cousins ​​debate for another day.) He also managed to stay healthy last season. If Cousins ​​can hit specific targets in the middle of the field, Moore should be able to improve on last year’s pedestrian YAC numbers after posting much higher marks in 2021-22.

Racing game

RB: Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, Jase McClellan, Avery Williams
OL (left to right): Jake Matthews, Matthew Bergeron, Drew Dalman, Chris Lindstrom, Kaleb McGary

Zac Robinson is no Sean McVay, but his former boss had success with both cow and committee approaches in the backfield. Although the latter is too enticing for Arthur Smith with Tyler Allgeier behind Bijan Robinson, almost all signs point to a delayed Bijan buyout. Most compelling is the fact that McVay and Cousins ​​both have a long history of forced contact with their best players.

Even amid last year’s craziness, Robinson was 13th in yards per carry (4.56), 12th in rushing yards average above expectations and eighth in running back receptions (58). . The foundation is already there. We just have to trust that Zac is smart enough to introduce Bijan, leaving Allgeier for the occasional short yardage or change of pace. Making Bijan a top-three running back requires a short memory and a bit of foresight, but he presents as a league winner in “Gurley mode” in this remade offense.

Win in total

DraftKings has the Falcons’ over/under set at an optimistic 9.5. 10 victories is a total that has not been reached in Atlanta since 2017. The winds of 2024 are in their favor. In addition to their considerable coaching and quarterback improvements, the Falcons play in probably the sweetest division in football. They face Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr and Bryce Young. This is one of the reasons why Warren Sharp ranked their schedule as the softest in the league. This does not include the season opening streak against PIT, @PHI and KC. If they survive this challenge even at 1-2, the upper hand will seem very attainable. 2-1 would practically make it a guarantee. From a season-long perspective, one ace in the hole is that the Falcons now have the league’s best backup quarterback at No. 8 overall in Michael Penix.