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Ranking UFL Player Likelihood to NFL: Houston Roughnecks

Gillberg
Ranking UFL Player Likelihood to NFL: Houston Roughnecks

The Houston Roughnecks were considered the worst team on paper heading into the 2024 UFL season, and that essentially came true as the team was a basement dweller that was a far cry from the Wade Phillips or June Jones Roughneck teams .

This makes this offseason very important for Houston because they need to build a better team for 2025, but before they can do that, they need to see who on this team moves on to the NFL. In this article, I will evaluate each player based on their chances of making it to the NFL this offseason and try to create a system and expectations for players that they can exceed or underperform. Let’s get straight to the point.

Methodology

For the record, this section is the same for every article, so feel free to skip it if you’ve seen it before. The first element to explain is the level system. There are 5 tiers a player can land in, tiers 1 to 5. Tier 1 is NFL related, basically I’m almost 100% sure this player will go to the NFL (by signing a contract with the NFL at some point during the 2024 NFL season), Tier 2 is a decent chance, I’m more sure than not that this player will go to the NFL, which is about a 75% chance, Tier 3 is maybe, flip a coin, 50% chance, level 4 is out of possibility, which is about a 25% chance, and level 5 is all players who have flaws that make me think that there is no chance they will make it to the NFL. I haven’t included Tier 5 players, but any player not listed is part of that Tier.

This also only counts players who completed the season and were registered by a UFL team. For example, the Browns signed Matt Landers who was on the Brahmas before being cut mid-season, he does not count and will not be listed. This is also a good time to mention that any flagged workouts that may be posted before this release will not affect grades.

The reasons players end up in a given tier are an unscientific combination of 3 factors: quality of play in the UFL, recency of NFL experience, and age. If you check all three of these boxes you will get a high rating, but you don’t need all three if you play out of this world or if you don’t play well but are young with NFL experience. I rely heavily on PFF grades to have an opinion on each player, but I’ve watched every game and my personal opinion can influence that as well. Finally, age is a factor that will hurt a lot of good UFL players and hold back players who, if they were younger, would have been Tier 1 and Tier 2, but there is a sharp decline when a player turns 28, which will affect how players are rated. If you have any further questions about how I arrived at specific notes or how I put everything together, you can contact me at ThornPFN on Twitter or on the PFN discord to ask me what I I missed it here.

QB and weapons

Level 1 : None
Level 2: WR Justin Hall
Level 3: RB Kirk Merritt, WR Keke Chism
Level 4: QB Nolan Henderson, QB Reid Sinnett, QB Jarrett Guarantano, RB TJ Pledger, WR Emmaunel Butler, WR Reggie Roberson Jr

The Roughnecks could never find a consistent passing or rushing attack in 2024. The only consistent piece for them was Justin Hall who should have had an NFL look last year, but this season is shaping up to be the weapon Houston’s highest ranked player as a Tier 2 player. At Tier 3 we have 2 pieces that were key to the little success Houston had early in the year with Kirk Merritt who would have been rated higher if he was healthy or younger, but is an interesting option as a changing player. positions from receiver to running back and Keke Chism who slowed down in the 2nd half of the season which caused him to fall. The Tier 4 includes their entire quarterback room that never found its guys but all are young enough to take a look and some younger pieces that never broke out like TJ Pledger, Emmanuel Butler and Reggie Roberson Jr. A lot of players are missing. This list while the entire tight ends room entered as a Tier 5 offensive player and former USFL Offensive Player of the Year, Mark Thompson also appears to have his NFL days behind him.

Offensive line

Level 1 : None
Level 2: None
Level 3: None
Level 4: T Cam Carter, G Braylon Jones, G Justin Redd, C Jack Kramer

Nothing is off limits, this Roughneck offensive line is one of the weakest groups when it comes to NFL prospects, in the entire UFL. Missing players in the top 3 tiers is tough, but when there’s a line made up of spring football veterans, that’s what you get. At Tier 4, Cam Carter and Jack Kramer had good seasons, but age and lack of recent NFL experience has hurt them, they are still quality pieces for the 2025 Roughneck team. The other 2 are Braylon Jones and Justin Redd who only succeeded thanks to their youth and recent experience in the NFL, even if their game was shaky. This sort of thing is likely to happen when 2 of your 5 starters are over 30 in Avery Gennesy and Isaiah Battle, automatically making them Tier 5s. It’s a tough group, but hopefully not replacing anyone could be a way to progress in 2025.

Before seven

Level 1 : None
Level 2: None
Level 3: DL Keonte Schad, EDGE Chris Odom, EDGE Christopher Allen
Level 4: DL Glen Logan, DL Jeffrey Johnson, EDGE Adam Rodriguez, EDGE Ronheem Bingham, LB Marvin Moody

The Roughnecks invested heavily in their front seven this offseason, but most of those pieces were veterans who don’t necessarily strengthen the group in this context. The list starts at Tier 3 which includes a mix of different archetypes, such as the veteran who could give it another chance in Chris Odom, a promising youngster who has done well but is not known to the spring football world in Christopher Allen and a lineman who had a solid, still-young season in Keonte Schad. None of these guys will blow you away, but I’d be surprised if any of the three aren’t signed this offseason.

See also

Memphis Showboats sign LB Terrill Hanks and McCulloch to IRMemphis Showboats sign LB Terrill Hanks and McCulloch to IR

At Tier 4, there are a bunch of names that are mostly spring football veterans who played enough to be mentioned but never got a real opportunity in the NFL for whatever reason. Tier 5 has many notable names like Rueben Foster, Gabriel Sewell, Olive Sagapolu and Toby Johnson that fans might recognize but haven’t had the seasons needed to put them back on the NFL radar.

Secondary

Level 1 : None
Level 2: S Markel Roby
Level 3: CB Kiondre Thomas, S Donald Rutledge
Level 4: CB Colby Richardson, SCB Corn Elder, CB Jimmy Moreland, S Rashard Torrance, S Jamari Brown

This Houston secondary had one player that stood out above all others in Markel Roby. Roby finished the season strong and, being only 24 years old, he is well prepared for a potential opportunity in the NFL. Kiondre Thomas and Donald Rutledge are 2 other players who played well in the secondary, which allowed them to land at Tier 3. Then at Tier 4, Colby Richardson, Rashard Torrance and Jamari Brown were on the list due to their age and Corn Elder and Jimmy Moreland were brought down by their age. This group didn’t have anyone notable at Level 5, which is rare on this older Houston team.

Specialists

Level 1 : None
Level 2: None
Level 3: K JJ Molson
Level 4: LS Logan Klusman

The best player to consider for NFL opportunities was JJ Molson who had a solid season, but nothing good enough to put him among the top kickers in the UFL this season. The interesting piece is Logan Klusman who had a solid

Conclusion

This really shows how much this team has struggled this season. This is the weakest team we will see over the course of these articles and talent has been one of the main reasons for their failures this season. The good side of this is that they won’t be split up like some other teams will be, but hopefully they will see that this roster still needs a serious overhaul. That said, there are still some diamonds in the rough for this team with players like wide receiver Justin Hall, edge rusher Christopher Allen, and cornerback Kiondre Thomas being the 3 players I think are most likely to reach the NFL.

What do you think about the Houston Roughnecks players heading to the NFL? Let us know in the comments below or join the conversation on Discord!

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