Will the Buffalo Bills offense regress without Stefon Diggs?

It’s the heatwave of summer. Allen/Diggs 2024 signs are being cleared and filling landfills around town. There is a feeling of impending regression as the best WR for Buffalo in years heads to Houston. Things haven’t looked this bleak since the days before Josh Allen. However, I believe that the more things change, the more they stay the same.

The ebb and flow of offensive production

Before looking specifically at the Bills, I believe it is important to look at the league-wide offensive and defensive trends over the past few seasons. The league is constantly changing, offensive coaches will create something that leaves defensive coaches perplexed and teams adapt. League-wide scores go up and down over the years. If you asked Bills fans about the best year of Allen’s career, most would say 2020 and they would be right.

However, 2020 was also the highest offensive production in league history. This wasn’t just a Bills-specific event. Sure, they were ahead of the trend, creating a WR room full of sneaky splitters and stressing out defensive minds, but many teams experienced scoring highs that year. Our friends from Kansas City have generated 6,653 yards in 16 games, which puts them at the top of the league. In 2020, the NFL averaged 49.6 points per game (12,692 points scored/256 matches played). In 2023, that figure dropped to 43.5 ppg (11,842 points scored/272 games played). So what is it My indicate? Defensive coaches now have a head start. What worked before when Allen (and many other QBs) were most successful doesn’t work now.

How will the Bills fare without Stefon Diggs?

Now, when looking at the state of the Buffalo Bills offense, the headline story is that All-Pro WR Stefon Diggs is no longer with the team. He’s undoubtedly talented, but the drop in his production last season was shocking. Over the final 10 games of 2023, Diggs has totaled 422 yards on 80(!!) targets. In comparison, WR Khalil Shakir totaled 462 yards on 38(!!) targets. Does this mean Shakir is a better WR? No.

However, Buffalo’s offense was most successful when it relied on players who weren’t 14th overall. Dalton Kincaid totaled 438 yards on 41 receptions and saw a big increase in his production as the year progressed. The Bills also leaned into the running game last season, with James Cook finishing second in rushing yards league-wide.

Buffalo Bills Offensive Personnel Moves

With all of that in mind, let’s turn our attention to the personnel moves the Bills made this summer. In addition to trading Diggs, they also invested in bigger WRs. Some of the notable WR additions were No. 33 overall pick Keon Coleman (6’4″) and free agents Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6’4″), Chase Claypool (6’4″). The Bills Also added to the running back room was rookie Ray Davis in the fourth round, who is impressive as a runner and will shock some with his pass-catching ability.

I believe this is the Bills trying to turn the tide and create an offense that can counter the recent defensive dominance the league has seen. Sending bigger bodies, relying on the running game, and playing a physical offense style is a good counterattack against some of the softer defensive shells they’ve seen. I can’t think of a single coach who agrees to pass them the ball effectively. It’s one of the most demoralizing things in football.

The Buffalo Bills are building on what worked for them throughout last season. Trading All-Pro caliber talent, like Stefon Diggs, is tough to swallow. However, I really don’t think it’s a bad decision. Maybe that’s exactly what the bills needed.

Featured image: Adrian Kraus/Associated Press