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Three takeaways from the Houston Astros: Pressly’s bad luck, McCormick’s struggles and Abreu’s return

Gillberg
Three takeaways from the Houston Astros: Pressly’s bad luck, McCormick’s struggles and Abreu’s return

HOUSTON — Major League Baseball will not adjust its schedule, so the Houston Astros will have to play teams other than the Oakland A’s. Winning six of seven games against Oakland in late May provided the most hope of Houston’s disappointing season.

Leaving the Bay Area for two real-life tests brought the Astros back to their brutal reality. Houston lost five of seven games against two playoff-positioned teams: the Seattle Mariners and the Minnesota Twins. Three of the losses came by one run, dropping the Astros to 5-13 in one-run games this season.

Houston is now 6-1 against Oakland and 20-34 against everyone else. Here are three takeaways from their failed attempt to step up their efforts in class:

Ryan Pressly is paid to throw clean innings, not to post encouraging peripherals. He doesn’t do the first thing, which adds to the frustration in a difficult season. Few fans will be comforted by the fact that Pressly is a victim of horrible luck, but it helps indicate why the club will continue to trust him during a disastrous period.

Pressly blew two of the three eighth-inning leads Houston gave him during this seven-game week, inflating his ERA to 5.24 and WHIP to 1.61 over his first 24 appearances.

“Velo, the shape of his pitches, he looks like the Pressly I’ve seen the last few years,” manager Joe Espada said after Pressly gave the nod in Sunday’s 4-3 loss to the Twins.

“There’s just a little bit of bad luck there, when he makes his throws, they find a way to get the barrel on the ball. It’s just a tough time, but he’s still really, really good.

Pressly woke up Sunday as one of seven pitchers in the sport with a batting average on balls in play above .400. Surrendering two lineouts and a double to Minnesota’s Jose Miranda that afternoon, his BABIP was lowered to .406 – an unsustainably high number that Houston must hope to match.

Pick any other metric and it illustrates just how bad Pressly’s luck has been this season. A 2.79 FIP accompanies his 5.24 ERA. Entering Sunday, hitters had an expected batting average of .236 against him, according to Statcast. Miranda’s hit against a hanging slider increased the actual average to .308. Only four qualified pitchers in baseball entered Sunday with a higher gap between their batting average and the expected batting average.

Miranda’s double was Pressly’s 10th hit against the slider this season. He allowed 21 total hits against the field last season. The slider still generates a 37.5 percent whiff rate, up slightly from last season, and has a nearly identical spin rate. The expected batting average against him this season is .202. Miranda’s hit increased the true average to .330.

Pressly generates fewer chases and allows harder contact than his career average, problems that this bad luck can exacerbate. The fact that he walks 3.2 batters per nine innings doesn’t help either, and something that can’t be explained with favorable advanced metrics. Walks rushed his two explosive innings last week.

Bryan Abreu preceded Pressly’s two implosions with a scoreless seventh inning. His sustained success naturally leads to the question of whether changing team configurations could be beneficial, and perhaps that’s something the Astros should explore. But it’s foolish to think the club will completely abandon Pressly in leveraged innings, while waiting for the luck to even out.

All the talk about a crowded outfield hinged on Chas McCormick resuming his role as a productive player. Jake Meyers’ ascension to an everyday mainstay came as McCormick missed 21 games with a right hamstring injury. Activating McCormick last month should have given Houston a surplus.

Since then, McCormick’s struggles have reduced him. He’s 2 for 19 with six strikeouts since returning from the injured list, raising questions about his playing time, especially with Yordan Alvarez’s increased time in left field.

Alvarez has started four of Houston’s last six games in left field. The team would prefer to play him behind starting pitchers Hunter Brown or Framber Valdez, two of the staff’s best ground ball generators, but the Astros aren’t afraid to deploy him behind a fly ball pitcher, especially at Minute Maid. Park.

Yet when Valdez started Saturday, Mauricio Dubón started in left field, Alvarez slid to DH, and McCormick remained on the bench. Dubón’s continued production could put more pressure on McCormick. McCormick batted in the ninth Sunday, hit a bunt single in the seventh inning to flip the lineup and was pulled for pinch-hitter Jon Singleton in the ninth inning, an indication of how McCormick is viewed.

“He gets fastballs. He barely misses his throws,” Espada said. “I feel like he just needs a few shots to build his confidence.” It is good. His cage work is awesome. His work on the ground is fantastic. He just needs a little luck there to move forward a little.

McCormick has made just 102 plate appearances this season, and 19 since being removed from the injured list. Drawing absolutes from such a small sample size is impossible, but the Astros aren’t in a position to give unproductive players a long lead. The decrease in bats by Yainer Diaz illustrates this.

The fact that McCormick wasn’t producing before his hamstring injury should cause some concern. He slashed .236/.325/.278 in 83 plate appearances before going on the injured list, a stretch during which he lamented his lag on hittable fastballs and inability to hit anything hard to right field.

“It was crap,” McCormick said of the start of his season. “I didn’t play well. And if I don’t play well enough when I come back, I won’t play.

First returns on José Abreu

Social media may suggest otherwise, but José Abreu isn’t the only cause of Houston’s poor season. The depth of his struggles and his huge salary make him an easy target, but placing all the responsibility on him for a team that is eight games under .500 is insane.

Abreu’s return this week after a 28-day demotion has only increased the scrutiny on every at-bat. That Houston brought him back in a critical series against the Seattle Mariners, and at the expense of Joey Loperfido, only compounded the external frustration. Losing three of four to the Mariners didn’t help matters either.

Abreu has three hits and six strikeouts in 15 at-bats since his return. All three of his hits came against fastballs – one sinker and two four-seamers – and all were hit to the opposite field, which encouraged Espada.

“I think it’s very important to understand where I am and where I need to be,” Abreu said Saturday through an interpreter. “The results haven’t been there these first three or four games, but believe me, I’m confident I can get to a point where I can help this team (and) help this organization win games .”

Winning would dim the spotlight surrounding Abreu’s every move. So would better production from the club’s established hitters at the top of the order, which would mask Abreu’s presence toward the bottom of the lineup.

Until Sunday, Espada had remained coy about Abreu’s playing time and how he planned to proceed with the first goal. Upon his return, Abreu said he spent his career as an everyday player and put himself in a position to do it again. Abreu has started five of Houston’s seven games since his return.

All three of Abreu’s hits, including his solo home run Saturday, came in games that immediately followed an off day. During Abreu’s resurgence last October, team officials and coaches cited the plethora of off days in the postseason as one factor in Abreu’s increased production.

Logic would therefore suggest alternating Abreu and Singleton at first base for the foreseeable future in order to maximize Abreu while keeping Singleton involved. Espada rejected that idea on Sunday.

“He’s learning fastballs a lot easier than he did earlier in the season,” Espada said. “He looks fresh.” He looks comfortable in the box. Days off are good for everyone, but right now I don’t think he needs a day off to be productive the next day. It seems good. I really like his approach, his at-bats, his pre-match work. I’m happy where he is right now.

(Photo by Ryan Pressly in mid-May: Tim Warner/Getty Images)

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