First weather warning day on Tuesday, Beryl brings heavy rain and flood risk

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Weather of the first warning:

• First weather warning day for heavy rain and flooding from Beryl on Tuesday
• Tuesday: Slight risk for isolated tornadoes or wind gusts southeast of St. Louis
• Warming up for the weekend

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Tuesday is a First Alert Weather Day: The remnants of Beryl could have significant impacts on parts of our region, with possible flash flooding, small rivers and streams that would rise quickly, and there is a slight risk of isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts in southeast St. Louis. The flood warning is broad to cover any shifts in the track, but in general we are expecting 2-4″ in the flood warning with lower totals in the northwest. The higher totals could be in St. Louis and the southeast as models have varied the locations of the heaviest rainfall. However, this region from St. Louis to Mt. Vernon, IL to Farmington, MO is where the highest rainfall totals are most likely due to the current track. And while most in this region are expecting 2-4″, some could see 4-6″. The afternoon and evening flood risk will be concentrated closer to the core of the remnants of Beryl, which will be to our southeast. Therefore, there is a slight risk of flooding for Ste. a Level 1 flood risk from Genevieve through Sparta, IL to Centralia, IL, with a higher Level 2 risk further southeast.

The latest model trend is for the rain to taper off a little quicker, perhaps by late Tuesday evening. I still think we’ll have lingering flooding issues affecting rush hour traffic Wednesday morning, but the larger impacts will be felt Tuesday into Tuesday evening. At that point, the heaviest rainfall shouldn’t have much of an impact on the Missouri and Mississippi rivers in our area, but more on the Mississippi downstream. We’ll be monitoring smaller and medium-sized rivers.

Stay tuned for updates as small changes in the orbit could result in changes to the forecast.

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