The heat index will exceed 100 in Houston. How much more heat will it make?

Houston will be stuck between two rainmakers Friday and Saturday, meaning Southeast Texas will only have a brief chance to dry out.

At Bush Intercontinental Airport, the city’s official climate observation site north of Interstate 10, storms Monday and Tuesday produced more than 2 inches of rain. Showers were more isolated Wednesday, with only a few places in Harris County receiving about an inch of rain. Precipitation has not been evenly distributed this week. Hobby Airport, located southeast of the city, received less than a half-inch of rain Monday through Wednesday.

“EXTREMELY ACTIVE” SEASON: Colorado State University released its latest hurricane season forecast earlier this week.

No matter how much rain falls in your yard this week, everyone will end the week with dry weather.

The end of the week features sunny skies and plenty of heat and humidity to boot.

FOLLOW US ON WHATSAPP: You can receive daily forecasts and weather updates wherever you find your weather news and information.

If you’re hoping to get out and grill some brats or run under the sprinkler, the weather shouldn’t slow you down Friday or Saturday. The two days will be almost identical in terms of weather. Temperatures in Houston will reach around 95 degrees, which is certainly warm, but not very close to a record high or even a record high.

Heat index values ​​– a measure of how hot it feels when taking into account the effect of humidity on the body – will reach 100 to 105 degrees both afternoons. An area of ​​high atmospheric pressure anchored to the east of US will allow moist air to circulate across Southeast Texas and push dew point temperatures into the 70s. The air becomes noticeably sticky and heavy when dew points are above 65 degrees.

By Sunday, showers could develop.

This week we are seeing a tropical disturbance in the southwest corner of the Gulf of Mexico. While a storm known as Invest 90L brought heavy rain and flooding to southern Florida, a distinct area of ​​atmospheric instability in the Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan Peninsula and southern from Mexico, caught the attention of forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.

Environmental conditions, such as low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, could allow this disorganized cluster of clouds to gradually grow into something stronger. By early next week, the Gulf of Mexico could produce its first tropical depression of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

A plume of deep tropical moisture is expected to arrive in Southeast Texas by Sunday, and scattered storms in the afternoon and evening could force outdoor activities indoors. Similar to storms earlier in the week, Sunday’s showers are expected to come on quickly, drop plenty of rain, then eventually dissipate. Monday and Tuesday could see a similar distribution of storms, with areas along and south of I-10 most likely to experience heavy rain capable of producing flooding.

Heavier and more widespread rain will inundate the region Wednesday through Thursday as rising tropical humidity peaks. One way to measure this peak is to look at a weather variable called precipitable water, or PWAT for short. This means that if you could condense all the water vapor in a column of air, from above the ground to the top of the atmosphere in a fraction of a second, the resulting liquid would be precipitable water.

Typically, PWAT values ​​above 2 inches indicate a particularly moisture-rich environment. By the middle of next week, as the tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche approaches Mexico, PWAT values ​​will locally exceed 2 inches. This basically means that you would be able to extract at least that many inches of rain from the air.

Along with the risk of heavy rain for much of next week, rough surf could make entering the ocean riskier than normal. Please watch out for beach flags that may appear over the weekend and next week.

CHECK YOUR RISK: Find out what your flood risk is by checking our Texas flood map and tracker. Click here.

Forecast models indicate that Mexico will face the peak of any tropical depression or named system that develops next week. Continue to monitor future forecasts this weekend and next week as we work to more clearly determine where this tropical depression will be heading.