Where ESPN projects Bills WR Keon Coleman to rank among rookie receivers

It’s often said throughout the NFL Draft process that a prospect’s landing spot is just as, if not more, important than his abilities: A prospect could have all the talent in the world, but if he enters a situation with a difficult path to playing time, their impact on the field may be limited. Conversely, a non-Prime prospect can have a relatively significant impact on his team if he has an immediate opportunity to contribute.

Receiver Keon Coleman falls into the latter category; Although ranked by most as one of the best pass catchers in the 2024 NFL Draft, this year’s wide receiver class was one of the most talented in recent years. Marvin Harrison Jr. was considered, by many, to be in a tier of his own, with Malik Nabers, Rome Ozunze and Brian Thomas Jr. occupying a tier or two above Coleman. This feeling before the draft was reflected in the draft itself: although Coleman was taken with the 33rd overall pick, seven wide receivers were taken before him.

While not unanimously considered one of the “elite” players in this year’s draft, few rookie receivers enter into a more advantageous situation than Coleman; he projects to play an immediate role in a revamped Buffalo receiving corps that lost Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis in the offseason, with general manager Brandon Beane previously saying the team views Coleman as its X receiver. Diggs and Davis have totaled 1,929 receiving yards during the 2023 season, and although Coleman is not expected to replace him all of that production, the Bills hope the rookie can account for a good portion of it.

Related: WATCH: Rookie WR Keon Coleman catches Josh Allen’s first passes

Coleman’s combination of talent and landing spot should result in immediate production, an idea reflected in Mike Clay’s projections for rookie receivers during the 2024 season. The ESPN analyst expects for the wideout to finish fourth among rookie pass catchers in receiving yards with 810, also predicting five touchdowns for the 21-year-old.

“Since 2011, 135 receivers fit this profile and played at least one snap as a rookie,” Clay wrote. “Of those 135, 22 (16.3%) reached 800 receiving yards and 21 (15.6%) reached seven receiving touchdowns. That’s something to keep in mind when considering the upside of Coleman (whose optimistic projection stems from Buffalo’s Josh Allen-led offense and wide-open WR depth chart), Thomas, Xavier Worthy and Xavier Legette.

Coleman is expected to finish behind Harrison Jr. (1,121 yards, six touchdowns), Malik Nabers (1,033 yards, five touchdowns) and Brian Thomas Jr. (814, five touchdowns). Clay expects him to have more yards than Chicago Bears rookie Rome Odunze (803 yards), who was selected with the ninth overall pick in the draft.

The projection generally seems right; Although Coleman is expected to play a prominent role in Buffalo’s receiving corps, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel and Dalton Kincaid still appear to see significant targets. If the projection were to pan out, Coleman’s season would be the fourth-best for a rookie wide receiver in Bills franchise history.