Atlanta closely monitoring Rays Righty for potential rotation help

A rare rumor, both from the Braves’ perspective and the fact that it’s only May 19, was released this afternoon. A report from MLB Trade Rumors citing insider Bob Nightengale claims the Braves are monitoring Rays starter and former Phillie Zach Eflin.

Now, it’s important to note that the trade deadline is the end of July, which means we have two months left before things ramp up. With so much time, a lot can change. The Rays are right in the Wild Card race (technically one spot due to percentage points), so they may not want to give up a rotation piece.

If the Rays fall from it, then it becomes a greater possibility. The Rays are still willing to make a deal to purchase future pieces. As a smaller market team, they are still working to find multiple players with years of control who can benefit the club. So no one should be shocked if Eflin is moved before the upcoming deadline.

This is also seen in the fact that Eflin’s contract jumps to $18 million in 2025. He signed a three-year, $40 million contract, but the first two years were paid at $11 million, meaning a team that normally keeps a smaller payroll might consider moving on from Eflin if they can get value in return.

Eflin, while solid so far in 2024, has not been the same pitcher as he was in 2023. In 2023, he worked 177.2 innings in 31 starts with a 3.50 ERA, 3.01 FIP , 3.12 xFIP, 3.30 SIERA, 26.5% K rate, and a 3.4% walk rate en route to a 4.8 fWAR. This season he has 59 innings in 10 starts with a 4.12 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 3.71 xFIP, 3.85 SIERA, 17.9% K rate and 1.6 walk rate. %. This is a slight regression overall aside from the 8.6% drop in strikeouts.

Eflin is a really reliable middle arm. Something that would benefit every major league club vying for a World Series crown. The Braves rotation has been solid even after losing Spencer Strider for the season. Braves starters rank 11th in ERA (3.44), 10th in FIP (3.73), 5th in xFIP (3.61) and 8th in SIERA (3.72). This means the Braves are not in desperate need of a starting pitcher. However, that depends on how Reynaldo Lopez performs as a starter down the stretch as well as Chris Sale, who hasn’t pitched more than 150 innings since 2018.

While there may be other, more pressing needs as the deadline approaches, adding another established major league arm could make sense for Alex Anthopolous, pending the price tag. With Eflin, the Braves would also get another piece for the 2025 rotation, which could help alleviate some of the burden of the cost it would take to acquire him.

With Strider uncertain for the start of the 2025 season, the impending departure of Max Fried if a deal is not reached, and with a potential retirement of Charlie Morton, the Braves 2025 rotation is a question mark.

However, the important thing to come back to here is that it is May 19th. It’s possible that the Rays have no desire to move on from Eflin or that the Braves feel the need to pay the price to acquire him. A fun topic to discuss here, but nothing to seriously consider unless more is released or as the deadline approaches.