Overreacting to the Atlanta Falcons’ ‘easy’ scheme

Based on last season’s opponent’s winning percentage, the Atlanta Falcons are tied for easiest NFL schedule for 2024. But as I say every year, the NFL schedule is much more complicated than your opponent’s combined winning percentage from the previous year.

ESPN’s Dan Graziano supported this and wrote on May 15 that the fact that the Falcons have a chance to win an NFC title because of their schedule is an overreaction.

“The Falcons also had the easiest schedule last season, and they went 7-10,” Graziano wrote. “The main reason for this is that the ‘strength of schedule’ measure we are referring to here is wrong. Basing such an assessment on last year’s records ignores the time-proven fact that the same teams aren’t good every season.

“We don’t really know who has the strongest strength in terms of opponent quality, because we don’t know who’s going to get hurt, who’s going to struggle, and who’s going to escape.”

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Graziano’s argument is more than fair. But Atlanta’s 7-10 record against the easiest schedule last year goes deeper than just the misleading nature of the “strength of schedule” metric.

The Falcons lost to eight non-playoff teams last season, including the Washington Commanders, Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers. Excluding their wins against Atlanta, these teams went 12-52 (.188 winning percentage) in 2023.

The difference, of course, between the 2023 Falcons and this year’s team will be at quarterback. Veteran Kirk Cousins ​​should be able to take advantage of a softer schedule, something the combination of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke under Arthur Smith was unable to do.

But it could still be a slow start for the Falcons. Four of the team’s first five games will be against playoff opponents. The one that isn’t is the New Orleans Saints’ visit to Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Atlanta’s “easiest” game in the first five weeks was arguably the season opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers. But history will not be on the Falcons’ side in this competition.

The Falcons hold an all-time record of 2-15-1 against the Steelers. They’ve beaten Pittsburgh once since 1971. Having Smith with the Steelers as their offensive coordinator only adds to the drama, and is probably one of the main reasons the NFL scheduled the Steelers at Atlanta in Week 1.

Steelers fans will also likely invade Atlanta and Mercedes-Benz Stadium this weekend. Cousins ​​and company could face a hostile home crowd in the season opener.

With a trip to Philadelphia, then visits from the Kansas City Chiefs, Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it could be a rocky start for new Falcons quarterback and head coach Raheem Morris.

After that it will become much easier. The Falcons won’t face a 2023 playoff team after Week 9. A 7-1 or even 8-0 run to end the season is possible, so a slow start won’t doom the team.

But that assumes the Falcons take advantage of their favorable roster in the second half. One thing that might take some patience if Atlanta gets off to a slow start.

Atlanta Falcons Schedule:

Pre-season:

Week 1 – August 9: At the Miami Dolphins, kickoff at 7 p.m.

Week 2 – August 17: At the Baltimore Ravens, kickoff at noon

Week 3 – August 23: Against. Jacksonville Jaguars, kickoff at 7 p.m.

Regular season:

Week 1 – September 8: Against. Pittsburgh Steelers, kickoff at 1 p.m.

Week 2 – September 16 – Monday Night Football: At the Philadelphia Eagles, kickoff at 8:15 p.m.

Week 3 – September 22 – Sunday Night Football: Against. Kansas City Chiefs, kickoff at 8:20 p.m.

Week 4 – September 29: Against. New Orleans Saints, kickoff at 1 p.m.

Week 5 – October 3 – Thursday Night Football: Against. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, kickoff at 8:15 p.m.

Week 6 – October 13: At the Carolina Panthers, kickoff at 4:25 p.m.

Week 7 – October 20: Against. Seattle Seahawks, kickoff at 1 p.m.

Week 8 – October 27: At the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, kickoff at 1 p.m.

Week 9 – November 3: Against. Dallas Cowboys, kickoff at 1 p.m.

Week 10 – November 10: At the New Orleans Saints, kickoff at 1 p.m.

Week 11 – November 17: At the Denver Broncos, kickoff at 4:05 p.m.

Week 12 – November 24: Goodbye week

Week 13 – December 1: Against. Los Angeles Chargers, kickoff at 1 p.m.

Week 14 – December 8: At the Minnesota Vikings, kickoff at 1 p.m.

Week 15 – December 16 – Monday Night Football: At the Las Vegas Raiders, kickoff at 8:40 p.m.

Week 16 – December 22: Against. New York Giants, kickoff at 1 p.m.

Week 17 – December 28/29 (to be determined): At Washington Commanders, to be determined

Week 18 – January 4 and 5 (to be determined): Against. Carolina Panthers, TBD