State Of The League: Buffalo Bills

From now until the start of the NFL season, I will be releasing a weekly article called State Of The League. It will cover each of the 32 NFL teams, including their 2023 season, offseason acquisitions, and what to expect from them in 2024 (think best/worst-case scenarios). Enjoy! Next up is the Buffalo Bills.

History has never been kind to the Buffalo Bills. In the 1990s, the team made four straight Super Bowls from 1990 to 1993. But, they lost every single one (including in 1991 when they lost to the Giants 20-19).

But, they’re slowly making their way back to the Super Bowl. Buffalo has made the postseason in six of the past seven years, including an appearance in the AFC Conference Championship in 2020 where they went 13-3. They’ve won the AFC East four straight years, and signs point to a fifth straight title in 2024. The question is: can they make it back to the Super Bowl?

2023 Season

• Head Coach: Sean McDermott (seventh season in NFL)
• Record: 11-6
• Offense: 26.5 PPG (sixth-best in NFL)
• Defense: 18.3 PPGA (4/32)
• Leading Passer: QB Josh Allen (66.5% COMP, 4,306 yards, 29 TD, 18 INT)
• Leading Rusher: RB James Cook (237 attempts, 1122 yards, two touchdowns)
• Leading Receiver: WR Stefon Diggs (107 receptions, 1,183 yards, eight touchdowns)
• Leading Tackler: LB Terrell Bernard (143 tackles)
• Sacks: RDE Leonard Floyd (10.5)
• Interceptions: CB Rasul Douglas (4)

The Buffalo Bills look to acquire their fourth straight division title in 2023 and were a favorite to win the conference.

But, things got off to a rough start as they fell heartbreakingly to the New York Jets. Even after losing QB Aaron Rodgers after five plays, the defense kept it close to the end. Tied 16-16 heading into overtime, the Bills punted the ball away to Xavier Gibson.

WALK OFF PUNT RETURN BY XAVIER GIBSON

WIN JETS
pic.twitter.com/zzrJibG3bd

— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) September 12, 2023

They bounced back, fast. Buffalo took care of the Las Vegas Raiders 38-10 in week two, the start of a three-game winning streak.

At the bye week, Buffalo stood at 6-6, and their playoff chances started to look slim. Then, they woke up and decided “Enough was enough”. Starting with a week 14 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, they went on a five-game winning streak to end the regular season finishing 11-6. It led to their fourth straight AFC East title and the second seed in the conference.

First up on the list was the Pittsburgh Steelers, who finished the season 10-7. But, Buffalo took care of them 31-17, led by Josh Allen’s 203 yards passing and three touchdowns. He also had a rushing touchdown and 74 yards on the ground.

Then, a matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs awaited them in the divisional round. In another close matchup, Allen and Co. fell short to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs 27-24. Another heartbreaking loss.

TYLER BASS MISSED IT pic.twitter.com/vq3ymPTYA1

— Footballism (@FootbaIIism) January 22, 2024

Offseason Acquisitions

• Acquisitions: WR Curtis Samuel (three years, $24 million), WR Mack Hollins (one year, $2 million), QB Mitchell Trubisky (two years, $5.25 million), LB Nicholas Morrow (one year, $3 million)
• Departures: S Jordan Poyer, C Mitch Morse, RB Nyheim Hines, CB Tre’Davious White
• Re-signings: CB Taron Johnson (three years, $31 million), G David Edwards (two years, $6 million), T Dion Dawkins (extension), ED AJ Espenesa (two years, $12 million), CB Cam Lewis (two years , $4 million), S Taylor Rapp (three years, $10 million)

Favorite Acquisition: WR Curtis Samuel. I didn’t want to choose one of the re-signings (although I would have selected Taron Johnson in this case). But someone needed to replace Stefon Diggs from a production and veteranship standpoint. Samuel is going to fill that role. He may have never had a 1,000-yard season. But, he was productive from a WR2 perspective in Washington. He has remained healthy for most of his career and has eight touchdowns in the past two years. I don’t expect him to be the team’s leading wideout. But he provides a veteran and trusting presence for quarterback Josh Allen to throw to.

Draft

• R2, P1: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
• R2, P28: S Cole Bishop, Utah
• R3, P32: DT DeWayne Carter, Duke
• R4, P28: RB Ray Davis, Kentucky
• R5, P6: C Sedrick Van-Pran Granger, Georgia
• R5, P25: LB Edefuan Ulofoshio, Washington
• R5, P33: ED Javon Solomon, Troy
• R6, P28: OT Tylan Grable, UCF
• R6, P43 CB Daequan Hardy, Penn State
• R7, P1: OG Travis Clayton, England

Favorite Selection: WR Keon Coleman. Say what you want about “Oh, couldn’t you have picked someone else to make it more interesting?”. To that, I say “No”. You love Keon Coleman. I love Keon Coleman. We all love the former Florida State product. A 6’4″ product who caught 11 touchdowns for the Seminoles in 2023, he is going to make an impact from the beginning and be a favorite target for Josh Allen. Add in his personality off the field, and he’s one player to watch in 2024 and beyond. Is he going to be the Stefon Diggs replacement? I believe so.

2024 Schedule (O/U 10.5)

• Week 1: vs. Cardinals
• Week 2: @Dolphins (TNF)
• Week 3: vs. Jaguars (MNF)
• Week 4: @Ravens (SNF)
• Week 5: @Texans
• Week 6: @Jets (MNF)
• Week 7: vs. Titans
• Week 8: @Seahawks
• Week 9: vs. Dolphins
• Week 10: @Colts
• Week 11: vs. Chiefs
• Week 12: BYE WEEK
• Week 13: vs. 49ers (SNF)
• Week 14: @Rams
• Week 15: @Lions
• Week 16: vs. Patriots
• Week 17: vs. Jets
• Week 18: @Patriots

Favorite Matchup: Week 6 @ Jets. We were robbed of this matchup last year when Aaron Rodgers went down. It won’t happen again (I doubt it), and we’ll finally see who wins between the veteran and the young superstar. New York is automatically a great offense when Rodgers is on the field, and adding Mike Williams alongside Garrett Wilson at wide receiver helps out a ton. Keon Coleman vs. Sauce Gardner will be one to watch. Plus, it’s on Monday night? The scheduling people knew what they were doing.

Best Case Scenario For The Buffalo Bills

Don’t sleep on our defense. 😤#GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/hsfMSoGfzZ

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) June 24, 2024

Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel both make Bills fans forget about Stefon Diggs. Josh Allen has no problem adjusting without his former WR1 for the first time since 2019, continuing to be the best dual-threat quarterback in the league and throwing for another 4,500 yards without question.

Allen had an insane 15 rushing touchdowns last year. Though he may not reach that total again, it shouldn’t be surprising if he reaches double-digits in that category again. But, James Cook is a solid RB1, remains healthy throughout the entire season, and finishes with another 1,000-yard season. He also continues to contribute in the receiving game.

Watch out for TE Dalton Kincaid, who could have a major impact in year two.

Defensively, the Bills continue to be a top-five unit even without Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer. CB’s Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford lock things down, with Taron Johnson becoming the best nickel corner in the game.

The Bills finally get over the hump, matching up against the Kansas City Chiefs in the conference championship and hoisting the Lamar Hunt Trophy.

They get to the Super Bowl and after years of heartbreak, they win their first Super Bowl in franchise history.

Worst Case Scenario

Josh Allen threw for just 3,089 yards, 20 touchdowns, and completed just 58.8% of his passes the last time he played a full season without Stefon Diggs.

Those colors show themselves once again, as the passing game production dips massively. Coleman struggles early against NFL competition and the rest of the Bills’ receiving core doesn’t produce to the level needed to win games. Allen is forced to make plays with his legs a lot more, which could result in an increased risk of injury.

The defense struggles without the veteran leadership of Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer in the secondary and is just an average defense compared to what they’ve been in the past few years.

No, the Bills aren’t going to finish with a losing season. But, they’ll struggle enough to barely squeak into the playoffs as a wild-card team and end up losing in the first round once again.

Final Offensive Thoughts On The Team

I have high hopes for the Bills. Josh Allen isn’t slowing down, no matter how you want to look at things. The team did the right thing by surrounding him with a young talent like Keon Coleman along with a veteran in Curtis Samuel. WR Khalil Shakir hasn’t been mentioned at all until now, but he’s an intriguing speedster who had a 76.7 PFF grade in 2023.

Buffalo also had two solid tight ends in Dalton Kincaid (673 yards) and Dawson Knox that Allen has chemistry with. Expect them to be among the top receiving weapons this year.

The team has all of their starting linemen returning, a unit that PFF had ranked as the sixth-best in the league.

Final Defensive Thoughts For The Buffalo Bills

Defensively, I’m a fan of them bringing back AJ Epenesa. With 6.5 sacks last season, I predict this is the year he reaches double-digits. He, along with Greg Rosseau, is a decent enough pass-rushing duo to cause havoc. Let’s not forget about Ed Oliver on the inside, who had 9.5 sacks and looks extremely comfortable entering his sixth season.

At linebacker, Terrel Bernard looks to lead the way once again after leading the team in tackles in 2023 and had 6.5 sacks himself. Nicholas Morrow comes from Philadelphia to play right outside linebacker. Can Matt Milano remain healthy in 2024 and show his dominance (played just five games last year. He recorded 99 tackles and three interceptions in 2022)?

In the secondary, Buffalo has an outstanding trio with Douglas, Benford, and Taron Johnson. Watch out for Kaiir Elam, who has stood out recently in minicamp and could earn a role for himself. If anything, another team will give him a chance.

Mike Edwards comes from Kansas City to replace Jordan Poyer at safety. He’ll work with the re-signed Taylor Rapp as the last line of defense. If any of them struggle, we could see rookie Cole Bishop (64.3 PFF grade in 2023 but 75.5 in 2022) earlier than expected.

In conclusion, the Buffalo Bills are an automatic lock into the postseason, barring any injuries or surprises. It’s a matter of if they can make it to the Super Bowl. To me, they have the talent to do so. They’re my pick (non-Chiefs pick) to win the AFC.

Buffalo Bills Final Record Prediction: 12-5

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Featured Image: Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images