Where did the Buffalo Bills land in ESPN’s 2024 Football Power Index rankings?

This has become the era of analytics in the NFL. These days, every major media site has an analytics team and uses it to make what you think are educated guesses or predictions. One such outlet is ESPN, which produces predictions based on what they call the Football Power Index. The folks at ESPN use it to determine win/loss records, division winners, playoff participants, and of course the Super Bowl. However, they go even further and also give us the odds of specific Super Bowl games. For the Bills, the most likely Super Bowl matchup would be with the San Francisco 49ers, putting the potential for that matchup at three percent. For some context, the most likely matchup in next season’s Super Bowl was again the Kansas City Chiefs and 49ers, with a six percent chance. The Bills and 49ers’ Super Bowl prediction is the sixth most likely matchup according to ESPN.

Buffalo’s overall ranking according to ESPN’s FPI is fifth in the league and third in the AFC. I find it funny that so many talking heads reject bills every chance they get. They say they are finished or will have their worst season in five years, but the analytics say otherwise. I tend to gravitate toward the facts and figures that analytics use rather than some random media personality. I digress, let’s get back to the numbers and rankings. Based on the Bills’ FPI rankings, they are projected to win their sixth straight division title, which gives them a 44 percent chance, compared to 31 percent for the Dolphins and 25 percent for the Jets.

“This breakdown is interesting given the hype and cautious optimism around the Jets – and because New York has the easiest schedule of the three teams while Buffalo has the toughest. Basically, FPI believes the Bills will have a high-end offense even without receiver Stefon Diggs, with Josh Allen playing behind a solid offensive line.”

– Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics

The predictions don’t stop there either. When it comes to the conference title, Buffalo has a three percent or better chance of facing the Bengals (3%), Ravens (5%) or Chiefs (6%). In case you’re wondering, Chiefs vs. Ravens is the highest possible matchup at nine percent. ESPN’s FPI is updated throughout the season, and it will be interesting to see how that changes between now and the start of the playoffs.