Buffalo Bills 2024 Fantasy Preview

Stats 2023 (ranking)
Points per game: 26.5 (6th)
Total yards per game: 374.5 (4th)
Played per match: 65.6 (5th)
Pass attempts + sacks per game: 35.2 (15th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.153 (5th)
Rushing attempts per game: 30.1 (5th)
Rush EPA per play: 0.010 (2nd)

management

Buffalo’s offense was decidedly run first by Joe Brady once Brady took over as offensive coordinator last season in Week 11 after the team unceremoniously parted ways with Ken Dorsey following a loss humiliating prime-time game against the Broncos. Brady’s Bills have also been efficient, ranking sixth in EPA per game from Weeks 11-18 and averaging 27 points per game. Buffalo finished the season with a 6-1 record. They had the seventh-best success rate in the league during that late-season stretch.

Brady has done everything he can to move away from Dorsey’s emphasis on passing. The Bills under Dorsey shot at a 60 percent rate in neutral situations (with the game within seven points) – that was the tenth-highest rate in the NFL. That neutral success rate dropped to 53 percent under Brady; only six teams were heavier in neutral situations. With Brady calling plays, the Bills turned to the run when they had a lead: only the Steelers, Falcons and Ravens had a lower success rate while leading from Week 11 to 18. Josh Allen recorded the 20th most dropbacks in the final month of the regular season.

Passing offense

QB: Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky
WR: Khalil Shakir, Marques Valdes-Scantling
WR: Curtis Samuel, Chase Claypool
WR: Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins
TE: Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox

During his rookie campaign in 2018, Allen led the league with a 19.7% deep ball rate, meaning about one in five Allen passes traveled at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. In 2019, this rate fell to 14.8 percent. It fell to 12.5% ​​in 2020 and 11.8% in 2021. After a brief uptick in 2022, Allen’s success rate was 13% in 2023.

Allen, like all NFL quarterbacks in recent seasons, has seen a heavy dose of so-called shell coverage: two safeties stationed well away from the line of scrimmage, stubbornly refusing to give up the big play to the cannon-wielding Bills quarterback. That’s why Buffalo’s coaches practically begged Allen in the summer of 2023 to stop taking risks on the field. Allen responded the same way. His average depth of target (aDOT) has decreased over his six seasons in the NFL and his screen pass rate has increased since his rookie season. In 2023, he completed 50 more passes within ten yards of the line of scrimmage than in 2022. Allen completed 29 passes for 962 yards on attempts of 20+ yards, down from 41 passes completed for 1,386 yards in 2022. Allen, who can throw the ball 50 yards flat-footed, joined a generation of Checkdown Charlies.

Buffalo’s increase in short throws could be huge for Dalton Kincaid after his PPR scam rookie campaign in which 75 percent of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage or within nine yards of the line. This is the good thing. Kincaid’s 6.3 air yards per target ranks 33rd among tight ends who saw at least 20 targets last season. It is good too. Kincaid should have a good weekly PPR floor as a reliable target for Allen.

Samuel could join Kincaid as an interesting little PPR scam in Buffalo’s conservative Brady-led offense. Samuel posted career highs in receptions (77) and yards (851) in 2020 in Brady’s Carolina Panthers offense. His signing with the Bills makes more than sense in that light. Samuel in 2020 ran 72 percent of his pass routes from the slot at a shallow aDOT (7.5). Similar usage in Buffalo this season could make Samuel a weekly flex option.

Khalil Shakir led all NFL receivers last season in completion rate, something I didn’t expect when scouting the rarely used third-year player. Shakir has sure hands and has proven difficult for defenders to break down. Last year, Shakir led the Bills with seven receiving yards per reception. He had 119 fewer yards after the catch than Stefon Diggs despite Diggs seeing 120 more targets than Shakir. He could easily become Buffalo’s primary playmaking threat this season if he (finally) sees a full set of routes.

Bills coaches have praised Claypool since he signed with the Bills in May. The journeyman wideout who totaled over 800 receiving yards in each of his first two NFL seasons has a decent shot at making the team’s final roster, but remains far from fantasy relevance, barring training camp/preseason injuries to Bills receivers. If Claypool can overcome questions regarding his work ethic and effort, he could function as a great rotation option for Allen.

Valdes-Scantling, after hitting a target on an astonishingly low 9% of his passes with the Chiefs in 2023, will be little more than a straight line runner hoping to free up space for the team’s primary pass catchers. Buffalo. MVS will have virtually no fantasy storylines in 2024.

Allen remains an erratic passer at times. He ranked 15th in completion rate relative to expectations last year on throws between 10 and 19 yards; his adjusted net yards per attempt on those pass attempts were tied with Gardner Minshew and Baker Mayfield. And Allen’s passing rate of 50.3% in 2023 is well below his career mark (56.7%), set in 2020. His rush, however, masks any passing difficulties he might encounter. Allen averaged nine rushing attempts per game during Brady’s tenure as OC last season. He had 20 carries in two playoff games. The fact that the Bills coaches haven’t spent all spring saying Allen should be a pocket passer probably means he’ll continue to run — and put up fantasy points.

Rushed offensive

RB: James Cook, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson
OL (left to right): Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern, O’Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown

Only ten running backs have completed more carries than James Cook over the final seven weeks of the 2023 season, with Brady calling plays for the Bills. Once relegated to split backfield status, Cook averaged 16.6 carries in games called Brady. Cook was used sparingly in the passing game (3.7 targets per game with Brady calling the shots), but the target volume for the entire offense dropped during that stretch. Cook was 16th in expected fantasy points among running backs from Weeks 11-18; suffice to say, being the primary guard in a run-first offense is a valuable role. He will enter 2024 behind an offensive line ranked by Pro Football Focus as the 17th best run-blocking unit of 2023. Last year, the Bills ranked ninth in yards before contact per carry, a stat that correlates closely with explosive races.

This is where things get a little complicated. The Bills used the 128th overall pick in the 2024 draft to acquire RB Ray Davis from Kentucky. A five-year college player, the elder Davis — who had 1,063 rushing yards in 12 games in his final collegiate season — could take on short-yardage duties and possibly goal-line duties in Buffalo’s offense .

ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler said in May that the stocky Davis could have a “sneaky big impact” on the team’s rushing attack, a sentiment echoed by some Bills coaches during OTAs and minicamps. Even if Cook would never have had the backfield to himself – that’s not the case these days – Davis, by taking the team’s opportunities at the goal line, would dent Cook’s advantage. Fantasy managers would do well to remember that Josh Allen is the team’s primary goal-line option.

Win in total

Only the Chiefs, Ravens and Niners have a higher win total (10.5) than the Bills for 2024, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. For a team engaged in what might kindly be described as a “competitive rebuild,” that seems awfully generous. I don’t expect the Bills to fall too terribly coming out of their Super Bowl window: Allen’s hero ball can keep the offense afloat and head coach Sean McDermott has been adept to make the necessary defensive adjustments. But I would take the underside with 10.5 wins, if only slightly.