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Year-by-year history of the Houston Rockets in the NBA Draft Lottery

Gillberg
Year-by-year history of the Houston Rockets in the NBA Draft Lottery

Since the NBA introduced its annual draft lottery with the 1984-85 season, the Houston Rockets have had a winning percentage of .553. That mark is tied for fifth in the league over that 40-year span, and it includes the 1993-94 and 1994-95 championship teams.

Yet the Rockets have missed the playoffs in 13 different seasons over those four decades, including each of the last four. The 2024 lottery, which will reward four non-playoff teams from this last regular season, takes place this Sunday, May 12.

So there are plenty of historical cases to see how the Rockets have fared in the lottery, which is held each year to sort the best first-round picks from selections originally belonging to non-playoff teams. From Houston’s perspective, the best result came in 2002, which led to the Rockets drafting Hall of Fame center Yao Ming first overall.

With that in mind, here’s a year-by-year look (courtesy of RealGM) at how the Rockets have fared in each lottery they’ve entered. Keep in mind that the formulas have changed over the years, with the latest iteration (current odds of picks) only being in place since 2019.

The complete NBA Draft history, by year and by all picks, is available here.

The Rockets (34-48) entered in ninth place (1.8 percent) and stayed there before ultimately selecting big man Joel Pryzbilla. He was then traded to Milwaukee for center Jason Collier (the No. 15 overall selection in 2000) and a future first-round pick.

Houston then traded with the Grizzlies to acquire Steve Francis, the second overall pick and eventual Rookie of the Year. However, this happened later in the 2000 offseason and was not part of draft night.

The Rockets (45-37) entered 13th among 13 non-playoff teams, giving them the worst chance (0.5%) of advancing. They did not do so and ultimately remained at 13th in the order.

Houston initially drafted Richard Jefferson at No. 13 in the first round, although he was later traded to New Jersey as part of a package to acquire Eddie Griffin (the No. 7 overall pick).

With just an 8.9% chance (No. 5 odds) of being the top pick, Houston (28-54) won it and selected Chinese center Yao Ming at No. 1 overall.

Yao went on to become a Hall of Famer and eight-time NBA All-Star.

The Rockets (43-39) were in 13th place, although the pick belonged to Memphis in the 2000 trade for Francis. With only a 0.5% chance, the pick remained at #13 and became Marcus Banks.

After an injury plagued the 2005-06 season, the Rockets (34-48) entered eighth place in the odds (2.3%). They stayed there and selected Rudy Gay before trading him to Memphis in a deal for Shane Battier.

The Rockets (42-40) were in 14th place, once again giving them the worst odds (0.5%) among 14 non-playoff teams.

They stayed at 14th overall and drafted Patrick Patterson.

In a recurring theme, the Rockets (43-39) were once again in 14th place, which once again gave them the worst odds (0.5%) among 14 non-playoff teams. They stayed at 14th overall and drafted Marcus Morris, just one spot ahead of Kawhi Leonard – who went 15th overall.

Have you ever sensed a theme? Somehow, after a lockout-shortened 2011-12 season, Houston (34-32) once again finished 14th for a third straight season. Once again, this was the worst first-round odds (0.5%) among all non-playoff teams in the NBA.

The Rockets ended up trading the No. 14 pick (which became John Henson) to Milwaukee in a deal for the No. 12 selection, which was Jeremy Lamb. A few months later, Lamb was one of the centerpieces of a blockbuster trade for Oklahoma City star James Harden.

The Rockets (17-55) had the NBA’s worst record in the 2020-21 season, which was shortened by 10 games due to COVID-19. Under the current lottery format, they were then one of three teams with equal odds (14.0%) for the No. 1 overall selection.

Houston landed at No. 2 overall, which is in the top 27.4 percent. Had they fallen to No. 5 (a 47.9% chance), the Rockets would have lost that pick to Oklahoma City as part of a top-four protected pick sent to the Thunder in 2019 for Russell Westbrook.

Jalen Green was the second overall pick in the first round.

The Rockets (20-62) once again had the worst record in the NBA during the 2021-22 season, making them one of three teams with matching odds (14.0%) for the pick No. 1 overall.

Houston ultimately landed at No. 3 overall, which was in the top 40.1% of results. Jabari Smith Jr. was the ultimate choice.

The Rockets (22-60) were tied for the second-worst record in the NBA in the 2022-23 season, making them one of three teams with equal odds (14.0%) for the No. 1 in the general ranking. Ultimately, that pick was Victor Wembanyama, who went to compete with San Antonio.

Houston then landed at No. 4 in the first round, which was in the top 52.2% of results. Amen Thompson was the choice.

Thanks to CBS Sports’ Sam Quinn, who compiled data from all pre-2023 draft lotteries as part of a May 2023 article, we can see the overall trend line. Combining Quinn’s data with the final 2023 result, the Rockets are currently at -1 in net draft slots (since 1985) compared to a hypothetical draft system based entirely on record.

Houston rose once and fell three times, while all other years remained stable. Yet since the year they moved up (2002), he went from fifth place to first overall and then drafted a Hall of Famer (Yao Ming), it’s hard to say that ‘They’re out of luck.

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