This Houston Series: Kind of a big deal

So, maybe you’ve heard, but the All Star Break is next week. Today, the Texas Rangers start a three-game set in Houston against the Astros, the final series before the Break.

I’m generally one that says that you shouldn’t get too worked up on one game, one series, at least before the final month or so. It’s a long season, lots of games to be played, lots of things can happen, all that. There will be 66 games remaining for the Rangers after the All Star Break, and that’s a lot of games. So one series in the middle of the season, whatever happens, isn’t a big deal.

Except, well, this series feels like a really big deal. It feels like a series that could either get the Rangers back into a position where they feel like they can make a playoff push, or that could put an end to the team’s playoff hopes.

As things stand currently, Seattle is in first place in the American League West, with a 52-43 record. Houston is in second, two games back, at 49-44. The Rangers are seven back from Seattle and five back from Houston, at 44-49. In the Wild Card race, the Rangers are nine games back of the Twins for WC2 (53-40), 7.5 games back of Boston (51-41) for WC3, and 6.5 games back of the Royals (51-43). The Rays and Tigers also have small leads over the Rangers.

To make the playoffs, the Rangers have to not just pass the Rays and Tigers, but they also have to either pass three of Houston, Boston, Seattle, Kansas City and Minnesota, or pass Houston and Seattle. That is difficult — quite difficult — but is not impossible.

Looking just at the AL West, while the Rangers and Astros are duking it out in Houston, the Mariners are playing three games in Anaheim against the hapless Angels. Mariners fans are likely rooting for the Rangers to take at least 2 of 3, and ideally sweep, the Astros.

What does the worst case scenario for the Rangers this weekend look like? Well, if the Rangers get swept by the Astros, and the Mariners sweep the Angels, Texas will find itself ten games back in the division and eight back from Houston for second place, and presumably around nine to eleven games back in the Wild Card race. .

And in that case? Well, I wrote about what the Rangers are reportedly prepared to do if something like that happened. Let the selloff begin.

Best case scenario is that the Rangers sweep, get to just two games back from Houston, close the gap in the Wild Card race, and maybe gain on Seattle depending on how the M’s fare in Anaheim. That would, I think, keep the wolves at bay for at least a short time.

A 2-1 result helps, but not a ton. A 1-2 result is a problem.

I hate to say that this is a must-win series, but if the Rangers don’t at least take 2 of 3, it’s going to increase the “selling” drumbeats, and makes it harder to argue this team is going in the direction that would make holding rather than selling sensible.

Both teams are coming off an off day, and with four days off for the Break beginning Monday, I expect the series to be managed with a sense of urgency by Bruce Bochy. Interestingly, looking at the probables, we see Andrew Heaney against Hunter Brown on Friday, Nathan Eovaldi and Spencer Arrighetti on Saturday, and “TBD” against Ronel Blanco on Sunday.

Sunday would normally be Jon Gray’s spot in the rotation, and he would be going with extra rest. However, Max Scherzer would be able to start Sunday on normal rest, given yesterday’s off day. My guess is that, if Scherzer comes out of his side session feeling fine, he will start on Sunday. No use saving your Lion in Winter at this point.