Atlanta Falcons 2024 Predictions and Odds

Atlanta Falcons 2024 Predictions and Odds:

Atlanta has improved its power rating in each of the last two seasons, and the T Shoe Index projects another step forward for the Falcons in 2024. Obviously, there was a lot of drama surrounding the NFL Draft and Atlanta’s questionable (dumb?) decision to draft a QB in the first round after committing hundreds of millions of dollars to free-agent signing Kirk Cousins.

Still, the team’s ceiling is as high as it’s been in years, and if Cousins ​​is fully recovered from his torn Achilles tendon, this offense could be spectacular with some of the weapons around him.

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Offense

Atlanta was just 27th in EPA/play and 20th in completion rate, largely due to the fact that they had virtually no passing game outside of Drake London. Ask any Ohio State fan what kind of impact Rondale Moore can have on a game, and they’ll likely curl up in the fetal position recalling his masterclass in 2018 when Purdue upset the Buckeyes after Moore asserted himself as the best player on the field. The addition of Moore and Darnell Mooney provides two key weapons on the outside for Cousins ​​to throw to, and they return TE Kyle Pitts and running back Bijan Robinson, who totaled nearly 1,500 yards of offense last year.

Additionally, coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson both worked under Sean McVay, so there’s hope they can create some of that McVay magic on the offensive side of the ball in 2024.

The losses are minimal but include RB Cordarrelle Patterson, QB Desmond Ridder and TE Jonnu Smith.

Defense

Atlanta’s calling card last year was its defense, which ranked 12th in EPA/Defensive Playoffs and fifth in Defensive Success Rate, and it didn’t lose any key pieces from that defense for 2024 while adding Ruke Orhorhoro and Bralen Trice to the mix.

One area they need to improve in this year is pass defense, as they rank just 21st in EPA per opponent dropback, though they are fifth in dropback success rate, so they were good end-to-end but gave up some explosives that drove up that EPA number.

Perspectives

Even if the defense maintains its 2023 level of play, the Falcons should be the most likely winner of the NFC South, as TSI rates them 0.6 points better than the next closest team (New Orleans) in the division. Again, offensive success will largely depend on Cousins’ health and/or the locker room dynamic between Cousins ​​and Penix in what is undoubtedly a tricky situation.

TSI is projecting 9.6 wins for Atlanta, which has the easiest schedule in the league according to my numbers. The Over/Under is currently 9.5 with the Over inflated to -135, so there’s really no play to be made here, but the numbers very slightly favor the Over if you had to pick it.

Atlanta Falcons Pick: Over 9.5 Wins