NFL Network analytics expert predicts Houston Texans’ 2024 win totals

Can CJ Stroud and have the Texans improved on their unexpected success from a season ago? The next step is to move from newcomer to elite, from hunter to hunted.

You get all the trendy analogies. The Texans really want to make sure their team can win all the way to the AFC playoffs. Houston spent an NFL-high $144.5 million in guaranteed money during its free agency period.

NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund recently predicted the win totals for all 32 teams. She based her formula on a mix of statistics, history and trends. These are just numbers, without intuition.

She thinks the Texans will score 10.3. That win total ranks third in the AFC and would win the South division. Houston is the defending champion of the South, but no one expected the NFL’s second-worst team in 2022 to have such a turnaround in 2023.

“It’s funny to have such expectations,” Texans owner Cal McNair told reporters at NFL meetings. “We embrace them. Basically, we’re starting a new season, putting together a new team with DeMeco (Ryans), and they’re starting from scratch. So it’s exciting, but we have a lot of work to do.

Conversely, Frelund put a lot of work into his predictions. She explained how she created the formula for her projections.

“Using the projected rosters of 53 players as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular season games,” she wrote.

She also noted “remember that these simulations take into account many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate with wins and losses based on historical football matches actually played.”

2024 Houston Texans Odds and Projections

• Total winnings: over 10.0 (+100)
• Participate in the playoffs: -200
• Winning division: +100
• Win the conference: +700
• Win the Super Bowl: +1300

Frelund writes of the Texans:

“I was the most wrong about the Texans when I predicted their win total last May, so I spent more time analyzing my mistakes and learning from them before the exercise of this year. Jonathan Greenard was a high-value player on the defensive front in 2023, and he not only outperformed my estimates on him, but also earned a sizable new contract from the Vikings in March. I feel better about predicting the addition of free agents Danielle Hunter this season. NGS shows he suffered fourth pressure last season.

” To trade for Steve Diggs and re-sign Dalton Schultz creates a great environment for 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud to lead Houston to back-to-back AFC South titles. It also helps that the Texans’ schedule is growing in difficulty, so they should have an opportunity to build chemistry between their new pieces and potentially get off to a fast start. The toughest section of their slate – a three-game stretch from Weeks 15-17 – comes right after their bye and includes a Christmas present for all of us: a matchup with the Ravens.

Coach DeMeco Ryans is heading into its second season. He started his playing career with the Texans as a linebacker, so he knows the defense. Bringing in Hunter, who had 16.5 sacks last season with the Vikings, was a huge hit in free agency.

The Texans also made significant additions on offense, trading for both wide receiver Stefon Diggs (Bills) and running back. Joe Milton (Bengals). And they took care of the players on the roster. Nico Collins got a pay raise that put him among the 10 highest-paid receivers in the NFL.

Check out the teams predicted to make the AFC playoffs

Overall, Frelund and his formula predicted that the Chiefs, two-time defending Super Bowl champions, would dominate the AFC. She projects 10.9 wins. The Bengals, with good health Joe Burrow back in the lineup, comes second with 10.5 wins. They are the only two teams ahead of the Texans.

The formula calls for a tie for fourth place between the Dolphins and Ravens at 10.2 wins a piece. The Bills are sixth with 10 wins, followed by the Jets with 9.6. These are the seven playoff teams.

You can check out all of Frelund’s predictions here. And check out On3.com’s NFL coverage here.