How it could all go wrong: 2024-25 Houston Texans

Bast: “We have analyzed their plan of attack, sir, and there is danger. Should I leave your ship waiting?

Tarkin: “Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you’re overestimating their chances.

You remember this line. Sporting cute sideburns from the late 1970s, the actor who plays General Moradmin Bast delivers this line, only to be slapped like a sci-fi Cassandra by Grand Moff Tarkin. Of course, we all know what happened to Tarkin, Bast, and the Death Star.

Although Star War Episode 4 is a cinema classic and most could quote this line in the exact accents of both players, you may be wondering “what does (KITTEN) have to do with that?” with the Houston Texans? Well, given all the offseason moves starting from Houston’s incredible run last season, one could argue that Houston has built something of a football Death Star. Especially if Stroud, Anderson, Collins, Stingley and others build on last season, Houston will be a force to be reckoned with in the entire NFL galaxy.

However, nothing is certain. Even though Houston seems in line for bigger things, it’s entirely possible that things could go the other way and instead of growing, the team falls back. An AFC South team that comes out of the mud to win a division title, a playoff game and looks poised to be a true contender? Ladies and gentlemen, the 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars. We saw what happened to them, going from AFC contender to also-ran in half a season. Could something like this happen in Houston? You’re probably saying, “No, we’re not Jacksonville.” Yes, but…

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Injuries: As charmed as it seemed for Houston last season, the team did not get through the season unscathed. The Texans suffered significant injuries, depriving the team of critical offensive linemen (Tytus Howard and Kenyon Green), receivers (Tank Dell), and defenders (Jimmie Ward) for the season. Even for those who didn’t lose a full season, the team lost his services for a while (Derek Stingley, Jr., Laremy Tunsil, Juice Scruggs, Nico Collins, Will Anderson Jr.). Even CJ Stroud lost two games to a concussion. Unfortunately, injuries are a constant in the NFL. If the team loses key players for an extended period of time, the team’s championship hopes collapse. There is talent on the team, but not so much that it could easily overcome the loss of a key cog like Stroud. Additionally, many of the big free agent signings Houston has signed this offseason are veterans with high mileage, potentially making them more injury-prone. Oh, and the team returns to the site of its 2023 Bloody Sunday during a Week 9 Halloween trip to New Jersey. Houston may or may not suffer more injuries, but it takes a toll on what they do at NRG.

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This schedule: Last season, Houston played a last-place schedule, earning the final spots in the AFC East, AFC West and NFC West. Additionally, the schedule rotation gave Houston matchups against the weak NFC South (even though they went 2-2 against them). This season, Houston takes division winners in the AFC North (Baltimore), AFC West (Super Bowl champion Kansas City) and NFC East (Dallas). The schedule rotations give Houston matchups against the AFC East (with 2 playoff teams and a potentially dangerous New Jersey Jets) and the NFC North (a much tougher division than the NFC South). The Texans have the 4th toughest schedule of the season. It’s worth noting that the AFC South will be a three-team race (Houston, Jacksonville, Indianapolis) and there aren’t many surefire wins. Many point to the nightmarish end to the season, where Houston plays Miami, Kansas City (Saturday) and hosts Baltimore (Christmas Wednesday), all within a 10-day span. Yet the start of the season offers no gimmicks, as Houston must open against vengeful Indy and then host a potentially dangerous Chicago team the following week. Houston might be a better overall team, but finish with a slightly worse record.

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Threats of regression: In all the excitement, Houston also saw a lot of luck unfold. The team went 7-3 in one-score games that were decided until the final minute. Can Houston expect the same type of success this season? Additionally, the team had huge rookie seasons from Stroud, Anderson, and Ryans. Can they all avoid the dreaded sophomore crisis? You would say yes, but remember the regression of Pierce and Pitre. Stroud had enviable INT numbers for any QB, let alone a rookie, but he also had several passes that should have been INTs that only turned into incompletes. Will this luck hold this season? Ryans seemed to push all the right buttons as a head coach and motivator, but he could be outmaneuvered at times. Will his motivation still be there this coming season? Or does it show flaws in the game masked by last season’s surprise? Can Cal stay out of trouble and can Hannah continue to make the right decisions?

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The burden of expectations: Last season, no one expected much from Houston. They offered the biggest surprise in the league. Even a dismal performance to end the year in Baltimore couldn’t dull the shine of the surprise season. Now, winning the division and advancing in the playoffs is no longer a bonus; this is the norm. The team has signed some rich veterans and assumes Stroud and the others can only get better. However, the pressure is mounting. The burden of expectations will be a new experience for this franchise, and while players like Stroud and Anderson played at schools where high expectations were considered normal, it’s a different thing in the NFL. Stefon Diggs is considered a solid pickup and is playing on a one-year, prove-it deal. However, he left Buffalo under a cloud and his discontent hampered the Bills. What if the Texans struggle? Is the discontent that haunted Buffalo last season coming back to haunt this team? Could this overall young and inexperienced team withstand this if things go wrong?

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The black swan: This weakness or this unknown and unforeseen event which, in hindsight, will seem so obvious, but which in the moment offers a huge surprise. For the Texans, the latest Black Swan arguably came with Deshaun Watson issues. Even though the team was bad, it disrupted the Texans’ plans so much that it kept the franchise in limbo for seasons. Or, you might consider the case of the neighboring Astros, who have forgotten how to win at home in 2023. At this point, it’s unclear what could haunt Houston, from a nightmarish personnel problem, to a weather event devastating or an actual death. Star coming out of hyperspace to destroy the planet… any or all of these things could be considered the black swan for the 2024 Texans.

Ultimately, the optimism surrounding the team is justified. However, to be a Houston fan of any stripe is to accept the possibility, however improbable, that Houston’s grand ambitions will collapse into despair and anguish (ref: 2024 Houston Astros). Aside from their sweet, sweet sideburns, no one wants to be the Leslie Schofield to a Peter Cushing. Yet for all this optimism, Texans fans would do well to remember that glory cannot be guaranteed. I don’t want a disappointment to happen, but I can’t completely ignore it either.