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Latino voters’ enthusiasm for Harris is growing, polls show

Gillberg
Latino voters’ enthusiasm for Harris is growing, polls show

Lauren Villagran, Rebecca Morin
| USA Today

It was a humid summer night in Washington, D.C., at a backyard barbecue at the vice president’s residence. There were carne asada tacos, mariachis, and margaritas — reportedly one of Kamala Harris’ favorite cocktails.

Gaby Pacheco was among the Latino leaders invited to the celebration in late July, which took on a new tone after Harris suddenly topped the Democratic ticket four days earlier.

Harris spoke of how her mother immigrated to the United States from India at age 19, and of the pride she felt in having reached the pinnacle of American politics in a single generation.

The way Harris spoke “felt familiar,” Pacheco said, as if she were part of the family. While Pacheco arrived uncommitted to the new Democratic nominee, she left convinced.

“I had to keep telling myself that she wasn’t Latina,” Pacheco said of the vice president.

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Every year, the share of Latinos among American voters increases. According to the Hispanic Federation, 36 million Latinos are eligible to vote this year, or 15% of the electorate. Of those Latino voters who are registered, about a quarter will be casting their ballot for the first time.

To win, Harris needs two-thirds of Latino voters, analysts say, echoing a standard for Democrats in elections in recent decades. Two recent polls of people who identify as Latino suggest she hasn’t gotten there — at least not yet.

As Democrats wrap up their national convention Aug. 22 in Chicago, analysts say they need to target this diverse group of voters whose political views can vary based on geography, income, education and immigration history. Latinos surveyed by Univision identified themselves as Mexican, Mexican-American, Chicano, Puerto Rican, Cuban and others.

“The first thing people have to do to win the Latino vote is try,” said Gary Segura, a UCLA political science professor and pollster for BSP Research, which conducted surveys for Harris’ campaign. “For decades, candidates have not paid enough attention to Latino voters. I know Harris’ campaign has prioritized that because of her experience in California.”

Pacheco understands the challenge.

““We are not a voting bloc,” she said. “Look at the Latinos in Los Angeles. They are different from the Latinos in El Paso, who are completely different from the Latinos in Miami. But we feel some commonalities because of the history of Latin America and our countries.”“

“Please tell your family”

Nearly three-quarters of Latino voters say they are “almost certain” they will vote in November, according to an August poll by the Hispanic Federation and Latino Victory, two civic engagement organizations. Enthusiasm and motivation increased after Harris took over the party, the poll showed.

In the poll, which surveyed 600 registered Latino voters nationwide, 59% of respondents said they intended to vote for Harris, compared to 35% for Trump.

Another poll in August by Univision, which surveyed 1,100 registered Latino voters nationwide, put his support slightly down: 53% for Harris versus 38% for Trump.

According to polls, about a third of Latino voters support Trump.

To win, Harris needs more Latino voters in her coalition, said Luis Miranda, chairman of the board of Latino Victory. That’s true not only in states like Arizona or Florida, where Latino voters make up a significant share of the electorate, he said, but also in states where the Latino population may be small but the margin of victory is expected to be tight, including Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Many Latino voters surveyed in the Hispanic Federation poll said they needed more information about his policy agenda.

“Only 33 percent of people know what she stands for,” Miranda said, “which means the Republican Party has a lot of time and a lot of money to try to define her. That’s why it’s so important that her campaign defines her in Latino communities.”

At this week’s Democratic National Convention, the Harris campaign launched a new outreach program to Latinos.

On Monday, Harris campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez, the granddaughter of labor leader César Chavez, launched a bilingual WhatsApp group called “Latinos con Harris-Walz.” She invited Latinos to join the group with a social media video from Chicago, saying the group “is the first in the history of a presidential election.”

“We hope that you will join us today and tell your family, your tías, your tíos, your primos — everyone,” she said, calling on Latinos to invite their aunts, uncles and cousins. “We really want to make sure that no one is left behind in this campaign.”

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Inflation, employment and gender disparity

The majority of Latino voters say that pocketbook issues are their top concern.

In the Hispanic Federation poll, 60% of voters said inflation was their top issue in the presidential election, with 38% citing jobs and the economy. In the Univision poll, 53% of voters surveyed said inflation was their top concern, with 43% citing jobs and the economy.

All other issues – including the border, immigration, abortion and climate change – scored much lower.

Jerónimo Cortina, an associate professor of political science at the University of Houston, said Harris’ political experience in California suggests she “knows what needs to be done.”

“She won a statewide election in California,” he said. “It’s not about winning the entire Latino vote. It’s about bringing enough votes to your coalition.”

Like any other group of American voters, Latinos have widely varying political views, influenced by everything from gender to national origin to where they live. Analysts say it will be difficult to appeal to different subsets of Latino voters.

For example, voters surveyed who identify as Puerto Rican “are already ahead of Democrats,” with 64% favoring Harris, Miranda said. While Cubans, particularly in Florida, historically vote Republican.

According to the Hispanic Federation poll, two-thirds of Latino women support Harris. But Harris has not won over Latino men to the same extent. Only 50 percent of men surveyed by the Hispanic Federation voted for Harris, reflecting the gender gap among voters overall.

The reason isn’t in the polling data, Miranda said, but he hears possible answers in his own community, in conversations in coffee shops in his predominantly Latino neighborhood of Washington Heights in New York City.

“I really think Latinos hear Trump on stage and some of them feel invigorated rather than insulted,” Miranda said. “He says what he wants and criticizes what he wants, when he wants. I think that bravado appeals to some of our men.”

On the floor of the congress

Nearly 50,000 Democrats flocked to Chicago this week, a city with thriving Mexican and Puerto Rican populations.

Among them was Jacob Garcia, a first-time delegate from Washington state. Garcia, who became a delegate after hearing about it through his union, the American Federation of Teachers, said he attended a Latino luncheon Tuesday where party officials talked about outreach efforts to Latino voters, which he found reassuring.

The campaign rounded out its convention speakers list with Latino and Latino leaders, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) and New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham.

As for the challenge Democrats still face in convincing Latino men to vote for Harris, Garcia said that’s not an issue for him.

“I was just raised a little differently, I don’t care about machismo,” he said.

All Latino voters want to know is, ‘What are you doing for me?'” he said.

“What are you doing to make sure that food prices go down? What are we actually doing for meaningful immigration?” Garcia asked. “We shouldn’t take Hispanic or Latino votes for granted.”

Partisan politics

At Harris’ backyard party, caterers handed out Mexican-style ice creams called paletas. A DJ played Elvis Crespo’s Suavemente, the ubiquitous merengue dance hit of the 1990s.

Latino members of the Biden administration were also in attendance, including Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra.

Pacheco describes herself as a “very independent” person who, as a longtime immigrant rights activist, has worked with both Democrats and Republicans over the years. She is the executive director of the nonprofit TheDream.US, which funds college education for undocumented youth. Pacheco was born in Ecuador and brought to the United States as a child. She grew up undocumented.

She did not forget that former President Barack Obama, a Democrat, still holds the record for the most deportations, surpassing Trump.

Yet Harris’ speech in that intimate setting last month convinced her: “It’s not an exaggeration. I really felt like I was the only person in the room.”

Pacheco became a U.S. citizen last year. She threw a party in Miami that cost more than her own wedding and called it “her wedding to America.” This year, Pacheco will be among the Latinos voting for the first time in November.

“Voting,” she said, “is what makes this country beautiful and powerful. I take it very seriously.”

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