Braves second-half storylines to watch, starting with trade deadline

ATLANTA — The Braves needed the All-Star break to “decompress,” as first baseman Matt Olson put it, after a turbulent three and a half months in which their pitching met or exceeded expectations but their offense sputtered and sputtered, much different than last year, when their greatest asset was their overwhelming hitting power.

Most of the key players from last year’s roster are still there, with the notable exceptions of reigning National League MVP Ronald Acuńa Jr., who suffered a season-ending knee injury in late May, and center fielder Michael Harris II, who missed a month with a Grade 2 hamstring strain and could be out at least two or three more weeks.

It’s because hitters in their prime, including Olson, the MLB’s 2023 home run and RBI leader, third baseman Austin Riley, second baseman Ozzie Albies and Sean Murphy have all hit and strikeout at rates far below last season and throughout their careers, that the Braves are convinced a second-half correction is coming.

Keep in mind that the Braves had a major league-best 3.63 ERA at the All-Star break in 2023, and a major league-best 3.40 ERA this season at the break, in a year when hitting statistics are down across baseball.

Matt Olson has a .309 on-base percentage with 13 home runs and 109 strikeouts in 398 plate appearances. (Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

The main difference for the Braves, who were 31 games over .500 at the break a year ago and just 11 over .500 this season, is an offense that ranks in the middle of the pack in most categories, including 14th in OPS (.709), 23rd in OBP (.304) and 17th in runs per game (4.28).

The Braves will need a better offense, along with continued stellar pitching from their top starters and a deep bullpen, to have any chance of catching the powerful Philadelphia Phillies, who hold an 8 1/2-game lead in the NL East standings over the six-time defending division champion Braves.

Need a corner outfielder at trade deadline

The Braves have used Adam Duvall as their primary right fielder since Acuña tore his knee on May 26, and in the last seven games before the break, Atlanta had Duvall, who is hitting .192 with a .585 OPS, and Eddie Rosario, who is hitting .180 with a .536 OPS, as corner outfielders. Double ouch.

Even with Harris expected to return in early August, at which point Jarred Kelenic will return to the corner, the Braves still have a dire need for a hitter, either to fill in or to platoon with Duvall, who has an .863 OPS against lefties and an anemic .421 OPS against righties.

With Acuña, Harris and Kelenic signed to multi-year contracts and likely to be the regular outfielders, the Braves will likely look for an outfielder on an expiring contract who won’t cost multiple top prospects or add significantly to the payroll since Atlanta is already in luxury tax land again.

Potential candidates include the Cubs’ Cody Bellinger, the White Sox’ Tommy Pham and the Nationals’ Jesse Winker. However, with the Nationals six games out of the final wild-card spot, it’s unclear whether they would trade Winker to the Braves, a division rival that Washington has beaten in six of eight games. The Braves could also consider Oakland’s Brent Rooker if they want an outfielder/DH under control for three more seasons.

Rosario, who hit .183 with a .555 OPS for the Nationals before being released two weeks ago, has hit .160 with a .360 OPS in 26 plate appearances for the Braves since signing him.

Schwellenbach’s progress changes outlook at deadline

The Braves still would like to add a late-rotation starter before the deadline, preferably someone with contract control beyond this season, because it’s unclear whether pending free agent Max Fried or 40-year-old Charlie Morton will return, or whether Spencer Strider, coming off a second major elbow surgery, will be ready by the start of next season.

However, the impressive performance of rookie Spencer Schwellenbach has lessened the urgency to add a starter at the deadline. Despite pitching just 186 1/3 innings above the high school level, including 110 innings in the minor leagues, Schwellenbach has looked poised and confident since his major league debut.

Ian Anderson also had encouraging results in four rehab starts (2.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) as he returns after missing a season and a half recovering from Tommy John surgery, and hard-throwing AJ Smith-Shawver is strengthening his arm and stamina after missing time with a strained oblique.

But the revelation has been Schwellenbach, who has a 3.34 ERA in his last six MLB starts, with 32 strikeouts, seven walks and two home runs in 35 innings. In his last two starts before the break, in front of sellout crowds against the Phillies and at San Diego, he has allowed two runs and nine strikeouts with one walk in 13 innings.

It will be interesting to see how Schwellenbach pitches in the second half of the season, especially when he faces opponents for the second time. But the stuff is authentic, the six-pitch repertoire is impressive, and the maturity and presence on the mound are exceptional, as is the former Nebraska shortstop’s ability to play his position.

Keeping the pitching staff healthy

The big three in the rotation, All-Stars Chris Sale, Reynaldo López and Fried, are the main reason for Atlanta’s major league-best ERA, which includes a 2.94 ERA for relievers, second in MLB and best in the National League. Having those three starters regularly pitch deep into games has also helped the relievers.

Atlanta has its deepest bullpen in years, and the Braves have thrown 309 innings of relief, which is fourth in the major leagues. Team executives hope that combination will help the Braves avoid the kind of late-season or postseason fatigue that has plagued some key relievers the past two years.

The depth and reasonable workload allowed the Braves to give the bullpen more rest and not hesitate to put relievers on the 15-day injured list rather than try to pitch through discomfort.

The situation underscores the importance of keeping Sale, Lopez and Fried healthy for the rest of the season, something the Braves believe they did before the All-Star break, thanks in part to giving starters extra rest most of the time. It’s a strategy designed to protect Sale, after five injury-plagued seasons, and Lopez, who pitched exclusively as a reliever the past two seasons and hadn’t pitched more than 66 innings since 2019.

Lopez has the major league’s best ERA at 1.88 in 17 starts. Sale (13-3) has the MLB’s best ERA in wins, has the second-lowest ERA among National League qualifiers (2.70) and has a strikeout rate of 11.5 per nine innings, which is even higher than his solid career rate of 11.1.

But Lopez is already at 95 2/3 innings, and Sale’s 110 innings are the most he’s pitched since 2019. And that’s with each pitcher pitching on regular rest (four days) only twice, and at least five days in every other start, including six or more days of rest for Sale in six starts and Lopez in eight starts.

That will change after the All-Star break, when the Braves plan to use regular-rest starters more frequently. It will be interesting to see how they respond to the workload and whether they can go that deep in games and stay off the injured list.

Fried also has just two regular-rest starts, but most of his starts have come on five days of rest, with just four starts on six or more days. He prefers to pitch on regular rest and is looking forward to the busy period after the break, when the Braves plan to use their regular-rest starters more frequently.

(Top by Spencer Schwellenbach: Denis Poroy / Getty Images)