PFF projects Bills to lose crown and fall in AFC East standings in 2024 NFL season

What has perhaps been a little overlooked in the Buffalo Bills’ recent rise to national prominence and perpetual championship contention is the team’s consistent dominance in its division; the team is 19-5 against AFC East foes since the 2020 NFL season and has won four straight AFC East titles.

This streak, if a publication is to be believed, could soon end. Pro Football Focus writer Trevor Sikkema recently wrote an article predicting which teams will win each NFL division in the 2024 season, picking the Miami Dolphins to usurp the Bills and take the AFC East crown .

Ouch.

Worse yet, he doesn’t necessarily foresee Buffalo taking too big a stake in the division race, believing it will come down to the Dolphins and New York Jets.

Double ouch.

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Sikkema attributes the Bills’ divisional slide to their offseason moves, writing. . . their roster is quite different from previous seasons, since there will be no Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Tre’Davious White, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer or Micah Hyde. This will be a good team with one of the best quarterbacks in the world behind center, but it’s a tough division and they have a tough schedule.

Buffalo made significant changes to its roster in the spring, with the departures of Diggs and Morse, in particular, appearing to have serious implications for the 2024 campaign. Although the omissions of Davis, White, Poyer and Hyde will be felt, the team seems to have managed to make up for their absences; Davis wasn’t a consistent playmaker for the team, and she should be able to get her production from a player like rookie Keon Coleman. White was once one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, but was limited to just 10 games over the last two seasons (and 21 over the last three) due to significant leg injuries. Poyer and Hyde have effectively manned the Bills’ defensive backfield since the 2017 season, but have also been injured in the recent past; both players have missed time over the past two seasons due to injuries, with Hyde missing the vast majority of the 2022 campaign with a neck injury.

Maneuvering motivations aside, the Buffalo of today is objectively different from the Buffalo of just a few months ago. With the Dolphins coming within a divisional game last year and the Jets returning four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers to an injury, it’s fair to believe that either team will make a run in the division.

Sikkema writes the following about his ultimate choice in the division:

“As for Miami, people love to talk about the offense, but the defense was also very good last season, finishing in the top five in team pass rush rating (84.1) and pass rush rating (84.1). team run defense rating (89.1),” Sikkema wrote. . “They also have the easiest schedule in the division.

“For me, it’s close between the Jets and the Dolphins, but a more favorable schedule gives the Dolphins the advantage.”

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Sikkema’s analysis of the Bills focuses on what the team lost a season ago without mentioning their additions, while his analysis of the Dolphins focuses on what the team was like a year ago without addressing their subtractions. Miami’s defense was indeed solid last season, but the team lost defensive tackles Christian Wilkins and Raekwon Davis, linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel and safety Brandon Jones. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio also left for greener pastures in Philadelphia.

The team completed its starters with Neville Gallimore, Jordyn Brooks, Shaq Barrett and Jordan Poyer, and it is certainly possible that the team’s defense will continue its strong play in the new campaign. removing the Bills from contention given their offseason departures while simply assuming that Miami’s defense won’t be phased by its own big turnover.

The June predictions are ultimately just a fun exercise that we can soon look back on and reflect favorably or negatively; they have little impact when it comes to the final standings of the division itself. Buffalo will look to win five straight AFC East titles when it embarks on its 2024 slate in September.