What Joe Mixon Must Do to Succeed in His First Season in Houston

Ultimately, Joe Mixon cost the Houston Texans dearly. When he was traded here by the Cincinnati Bengals, the Texans only gave up a seventh-round pick in 2024. On paper, that doesn’t seem like much. Especially given how crazy the free-agent period has been for running backs. Had Mixon not been traded, he would have been open to being signed by anyone, leaving the Texans without a star back.

So they coughed up a seventh-round pick and then paid Mixon a big chunk of money. The Texans committed $25 million to Mixon over the next three seasons. Not only are they giving a lot of money to an aging running back who has never reached elite status before in his career, but they are also tying up future money for potential big-time players. If Mixon makes that money, it means it’s not being used on better players.

Specifically, better options at the running back position. Mixon is the result of what happens when you underestimate the players you want, thereby losing Saquon Barkley and other high-profile running backs this offseason. So they overpaid Mixon as a result.

I made it clear, due to his age, declining performance, and not-so-smooth integration within the Texans’ system, that Mixon was not the guy for the team. He’s just not that guy. That said, I’m open to being wrong. Nothing in this world is guaranteed, just look at Raheem Mostert. He finally reached the 1,000-yard mark in 2023 at the age of 31. He also made his first Pro Bowl in 2023.

After nine seasons in the league and five teams, Mostert has become the player he knew he could be. Former NFL megastar Priest Holmes was another example of a player who was slow to blossom at running back. Mixon could easily improve his game. It’s unlikely, but it’s possible.

So what would Mixon have to do to prove me wrong? First, being a pass-catching threat is going to be huge. 2022 was his most productive year catching the ball, producing 441 yards through the air. A solid number, assuming he produced normally running the ball that season. Instead, he rushed for just 800 yards, making his total yards from scrimmage the third-lowest of his career. It was also the lowest of any season in which he started at least 14 games.

Mixon needs to produce better than he did in 2022. If he can get to at least 500 receiving yards, in addition to a 1,000-yard rushing season, then we’ll have something that would pass for a great season. In addition to 1,500 total yards, we’ll need 10 total touchdowns. It doesn’t matter how Mixon gets them, what matters is that he gets them.

If he can produce a stat line of 1,500 total yards (500 of which should be receiving), with 4.0 or more yards per carry and at least 10 total touchdowns, I’ll give him credit for signing him.