A look back at Houston Rockets star Jalen Green’s crazy month of March

Everyone likes a clear and tidy explanation. Phenomenon A is explained by the variable X. Great. Now we can move on.

But life can be complicated. Sometimes there are competing or even contradictory explanations. This could have happened for several reasons, and we are still determining which one.

The Houston Rockets must be wondering why Jalen Green was so incredible in March. Averaging 27.7 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game, Green looked like one of the best players in the NBA.

If you’re new here, Green doesn’t always look like one of the best players in the NBA. His struggles were well documented throughout the first three years of his career.

What happened?

There are two competing explanations.

The first is that Green’s statistical production increased in the absence of the injured Alperen Sengun. There is at least some validity in this position. Sengun usually operates indoors. With Jabari Smith Jr. at the 5, Green suddenly had plenty of space to operate.

Some will protest that the Rockets’ spacing hasn’t improved much in Sengun’s absence. Amen Thompson, an even worse shooter, was inserted into the starting lineup. Sure, but there’s a marked difference between a wing trying to get into the dunker zone and a big man mostly camping out in the paint.

So, problem solved, right? Turn on the commercial machine: green is better without Sengun.

Not so fast. The Rockets’ schedule was extremely light in March. Green didn’t explode because Sengun was injured. He blew up because beating the Washington Wizards is easy, right?

It depends: How did Green fare against superior competition?

We isolated Green’s stats against the seven playoff contenders the Rockets played in March. For context, those teams were the Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Clippers, Sacramento Kings, Cleveland Cavaliers, Chicago Bulls, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Dallas Mavericks.

In those seven games, Green averaged 24.1 points while shooting 46.6% from the field and 32.2% from three-point range, with 6.4 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game . In other words, outside of a shaky three-point percentage, Green was still exceptional against competitive teams in March.

Let’s talk about sample size. Of course, seven games isn’t much. Keep in mind that we’re screening Green’s games against lottery teams. When you include these games, the numbers look a lot more glaring. The good news is that the Rockets will play lottery teams every year.

Even a full month of NBA basketball is a limited sample size. Still, it’s important enough to have at least some importance. The facts remain: Green played well against playoff teams, and extremely well in general, for an entire month, along with a big streak. It’s amazing.

There are other caveats. The Cavaliers were playing without Evan Mobley. The Thunder were missing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Both the Kings and Bulls had playoff aspirations at the time of these games, but neither succeeded.

Don’t be short-sighted. Green shouldn’t have to take on the challenge against a roster of superteams to prove his worth. Alex Caruso plays for the Bulls and he’s supposed to make life difficult for Green. Gilgeous-Alexander wouldn’t have been his primary assignment anyway, and the Cavaliers often look better without either Allen or Mobley.

They were good teams, and Green still played well against them. Of course, he turned against the Mavericks and Clippers. Green will likely always be inconsistent, but his run in March undeniably indicates his remaining potential as a volume star.

Can he reach this potential alongside Sengun?

We’re not sure. The Rockets shouldn’t be either. They should keep an eye on the synergy between Green and Sengun in 2024-25.

It’s worth noting that one of Green’s best performances in March came while Sengun was still healthy. In a win against a healthy Suns team on March 2, Green had 34 points on 12/23 shooting from the field, with 9 rebounds and 4 assists.

If March is a small sample size, seven games against playoff teams is even smaller — and one game can’t be found under a microscope. Still, there is reason to believe the duo can coexist.

This may require some adjustments in the use of Sengun. He can get his defender out of the paint and open up driving lanes by operating as a passing center in the high post or from the elbow. Sengun can also add more dribble handoff actions to his offense.

He can also hang around the perimeter in a 5-out system. Of course he’s a suspicious shooter. He’s still a threat to knock down a wide open three. Sengun’s main mission will remain on the perimeter, otherwise he will make them pay one way or another.

At least we hope so.

Otherwise, it might get complicated.