Yellow alert: Heavy storms with heavy rain possible on Saturday

A yellow warning remains in effect for the risk of severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally heavy rain on Saturday. While the severe weather threat is not certain for everyone, there is a good chance everyone will get at least some rain. If a thunderstorm does indeed develop, some of the stronger storms could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain. If there are multiple rounds of storms over the same areas, localized flooding is possible. Storm fuel is fairly low, but there are enough other factors in the atmosphere that could lead to the development of gusty winds and perhaps a rotating thunderstorm or two. The main threat for severe storms appears to be south of Rochester in the Southern Tier, but everyone needs to have a way to get weather warnings and updates if they have plans to be outdoors. Storms tend to be concentrated in the late morning to mid-afternoon hours before slowly tapering off toward the evening.

While the severe threat will fade after about 5 or 6, a few showers or thunderstorms are still possible overnight as we await the arrival of our cold front. This will be the case Sunday morning, with a few more early showers, followed by some clearing in the afternoon. Winds will pick up as cooler and drier air moves in Sunday afternoon. Monday will be cool and pleasant, with skies becoming mostly sunny, with fair and warmer weather on Tuesday.

Fourth of July festivities kick off in earnest on Wednesday, and our weather will be wetter and warmer, with temperatures potentially reaching 90 degrees. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible later in the day, so if you have Independence Day plans, keep an eye on the forecast and the timing of rainy weather. The Fourth of July itself looks pretty good on Thursday, with partly cloudy skies and only a slight chance of rain.