What does the attack on Trump’s rally mean for the US election? | Donald Trump News

Eight shots have changed the US election and made an already unprecedented election campaign even more uncertain.

On Sunday, a day after the attack on US President Donald Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, more details emerged, as well as initial indications of the impact the violence would have on political discourse, the election campaign and voter attitudes in the US in the days leading up to the November 8 election.

But for US political strategist Rina Shah, one thing was clear immediately after the attack: “No matter what happens, everything will change from now on.”

This will be particularly evident at the Republican National Convention (RNC) in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, she said, where Republicans will meet starting Monday to begin the official process of nominating Trump as their candidate.

The event comes just two days after the gunman, identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, opened fire from a nearby rooftop outside the Secret Service security perimeter at Trump’s rally.

One bullet grazed Trump’s right ear, causing panic on the crowded stage. Others hit spectators, killing one man and injuring two others.

“I can say it’s a shock to the mind,” Shah said in a television interview with Al Jazeera. “It’s less than 120 days and it turns everything on its head.”

Calls for unity are met with accusations and blame

Indeed, the attack on the rally – in which Trump became the 13th U.S. president or presidential candidate to be assassinated and the eighth to survive – was immediately met with calls from elected officials to overcome the polarization that characterizes modern U.S. politics.

US President Joe Biden called the violence “sick” before speaking to his opponent on the phone late Saturday. He said “everyone must condemn the attack”.

On Sunday, in a departure from the often caustic rhetoric that had previously characterized his campaign, Trump declared: “It is more important than ever that we stand united.”

Experts on political violence have said it is imperative for political leaders to continue to calm the situation to prevent further violence or retaliation.

In a television interview with Al Jazeera after the attack, Colin P. Clarke, director of research at the security consulting firm Soufan Group, said the violence at the rally “embodied the current extremes of US democracy.”

Recent studies have shown that while Americans are less ideologically polarized than they perceive, they are increasingly “emotionally polarized,” meaning they “harbor strong antipathy toward members of the other party,” according to an analysis published last year by Rachel Kleinfeld, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Several studies show that threats against elected officials and public officials have increased in recent years, with a significant increase after Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, in an attempt to overturn Biden’s election victory.

Meanwhile, a University of Chicago poll conducted in June found that nearly 7 percent of respondents said the use of violence was justified to bring Trump back to the presidency, while another 10 percent said violence was justified to “prevent Trump from becoming president.”

Security analyst Clarke added that while the violence at the Trump rally could be a unifying moment for Americans, “it will also likely be divisive,” predicting a “very dangerous political season.”

His words have since proved prescient, with a number of Republicans, including Trump’s possible vice presidential nominee Senator JD Vance, blaming Biden for the attack. Vance said Biden’s rhetoric portrayed Trump as an “authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs.”

At least one Republican congressman has resorted to the conspiracy theory: US Representative Mike Collins of Georgia baselessly called on authorities to arrest Biden for “incitement to assassinate.”

Political blow

While political observers wait to see whether the shooting will actually exacerbate or lessen political polarization in the U.S., nearly all analysts who spoke to Al Jazeera agree that Trump is likely to receive a boost in support following the attack.

This assessment is reinforced by the timing of the incident shortly before the RNC, as Trump’s team stated that he would attend anyway.

The images and reports that emerged from the attack will also contribute to greater reinforcement.

“The iconic shot of Trump standing with his fist raised, blood running down the side of his head, with the flag perfectly draped over him, really drives the narrative,” James Davis, a Republican strategist, told Al Jazeera.

“He will be viewed with sympathy by the national public afterwards,” he said.

He will never stop fighting to save America 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/qT4Vd0sVTm

— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) July 13, 2024

Even a small increase in support could make all the difference in a race that will be decided by razor-thin majorities. Trump and Biden both hope to win over a small group of undecided voters in some key swing states while mobilizing voters who don’t normally turn out to vote.

Trump has largely shrugged off his historic conviction in May for paying hush money to a porn star, even though some polls have shown some softening among undecided voters, while Biden faces increasing calls from within his own party to step down as concerns about his age grow.

Nevertheless, a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released last week found Biden narrowly ahead of Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, and Trump with a narrow lead in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

Fear of further violence

Democratic strategist Arshad Hasan also acknowledged in an interview with Al Jazeera that Trump was likely to gain ground after the attack, especially since the Biden team had announced that it would not publish any critical news or ads for 48 hours out of respect for Trump.

While Hasan said Democrats were wise to focus on “humanity” after the attack, they should also continue to call for stronger gun control, which Biden has already made a central theme of his presidency. “The right time to talk about gun violence is whenever there is gun violence,” he said.

The political strategist said he was attending a conference of the party’s progressive wing when the attack occurred and saw shock waves coursing through the crowd of attendees, many of whom would spend the next few months before the election on various campaign tours and at events similar to Trump’s rally.

In addition to the attack on Trump, many people are still thinking about the shooting of Congresswoman Gabby Giffords at a campaign rally in 2011 and the attack on baseball-playing congresswomen in Alexandria, Virginia, in 2017, he added.

The election campaign will probably be dominated by this specter, said Hasan.

“Hundreds of people are running for Congress, for the Senate, thousands of people are running for state legislatures. And then there are all the issues that people are campaigning on,” he said.

While the attack has prompted a reassessment of security measures for high-profile candidates’ campaigns, most candidates face little or no security precautions for their campaigns.

“There is a fear that violence will lead to more violence,” Hasan said.