Houston under flood watch as heavy rain arrives Tuesday evening

Parts of Southeast Texas will be under a flood watch starting Tuesday evening, as a deep plume of tropical moisture is poised to bring heavy rain to the region.

Numerous showers are expected through Tuesday afternoon, but the heaviest and most widespread precipitation arrives late Tuesday and is expected to persist through Wednesday. By the time all is said and done, precipitation totals could exceed half a foot south of Houston. Here’s how much rain you can expect over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Chances of rain are expected to begin fairly early in the day on Tuesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers are expected until about 8 a.m., which could cause some slowdowns for morning commuters, similar to what the storms caused early Monday.

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Models were consistent in placing the heaviest and most widespread precipitation in Southeast Texas later in the day. Tuesday afternoon will see storms arrive as an axis of moisture-rich air arrives from the Gulf of Mexico. This moisture will be pushed north, thanks to what has been dubbed Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 by the National Hurricane Center.

If you can work from home on Tuesday afternoon, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to do so as we may have some flooded roads. The rain that begins to fall on Tuesday is expected to continue over the next few days.

Rain is expected to persist through the June 19 holiday. If you plan to go out for the various festivities taking place Wednesday in the Houston area, closely monitor the impact of the weather on these events.

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Whatever your plans Wednesday, the risk of heavy rain will be highest primarily along and south of Interstate 10 from Houston to San Antonio. The highest precipitation totals are expected to fall along the Texas Gulf Coast from Galveston Bay to Corpus Christi. Rainfall totals of 8 to 10 inches will be possible, especially between Matagorda Bay and Corpus Christi.

Outside the coasts, precipitation accumulations will decrease a little. Most of Houston and Harris County are expected to receive 3 to 6 inches of rain, with higher totals found primarily in the southern half of the county. Areas hit hard by spring flooding, like Huntsville and Trinity, will likely see between 2 and 4 inches of rain by midweek. Although the flood watch that goes into effect Tuesday evening does not include Montgomery or Walker counties, flood-prone areas should still remain vigilant for water levels.

After Wednesday, the region should see a return to more typical summer thunderstorms.

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This means there is a 40-60% chance of a storm occurring in the afternoon or evening, as opposed to a widespread rain shield, due to a tropical disturbance. Still, more rain isn’t necessarily what the region needs to help alleviate the flood risk from earlier this week.

By the weekend, storm chances could drop as much as 20 or 30 percent as temperatures return to the low and mid 90s.