Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Best Bet

Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: June 9, 2024
• Place: Angels Stadium
• Starting pitchers:
  • Justin Verlander – Astros
  • Patrick Sandoval – Angels

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Win Odds

The implied winning percentage in sports betting represents the probability of an outcome suggested by the betting odds. It is a way for bettors to assess the probability of an event happening based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win Percentage, also known as Projected Win Probability, is an estimate made by ATS.io to determine the likelihood of a team winning a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics and historical data.

Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

On June 9, 2024, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Houston Astros at Angel Stadium in an American League West showdown. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Angels holding a disappointing 24-39 record and the Astros slightly better at 29-35. Despite mediocre records, this matchup features some intriguing pitching and offensive dynamics that could make it an exciting game.

The Angels will send left-hander Patrick Sandoval to the mound. Sandoval, despite his 2-8 record and 5.00 ERA, is ranked the 30th best starting pitcher according to MLB’s primary projection system, THE BAT got lucky this year and could perform better in the future. On the other side, the Astros will counter with veteran right-hander Justin Verlander, who owns a 3-2 record and a solid 3.63 ERA. However, Verlander’s xFIP of 4.72 indicates that he could regress as the season progresses.

Offensively, the Astros have the upper hand. They rank 6th in overall offensive performance, 2nd in team batting average, and 3rd in home runs. Yainer Diaz has been red hot for Houston, with a .375 batting average and 1.500 OPS over the past week, including 4 home runs and 9 RBIs in just 4 games. The Angels, while not as powerful overall, still pack a punch with the 6th most home runs in MLB and 9th in stolen bases. Willie Calhoun has been a standout in Los Angeles recently, hitting .333 over the past week.

The Angels’ 28th-ranked bullpen has been a glaring weakness, while the Astros’ bullpen sits at a more respectable 14th place. This disparity could be crucial late in games, especially given the Angels’ tendency to falter in close games.

Betting markets currently favor the Astros with a moneyline of -165, implying a 60% win probability. However, THE BAT X projects this as a much closer game, giving the Angels a 49% chance of winning. This spread suggests that it may be worth betting on the Angels, especially given Verlander’s high flyball rate against a powerful Angels lineup. With a total of 8.0 points, expect a competitive affair where the underdogs Angels could surprise and deliver a strong performance.

Quick takes on the Houston Astros:

Justin Verlander is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.2% FB% according to the primary projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck in Major League Baseball’s #5 HR site in today’s game.

• This pitcher’s skillset doesn’t fit particularly well into the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse performances than usual.

In terms of his batting average, José Abreu has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His mark of .218 falls considerably below the main projection system’s (THE BAT X) version of expected batting average (xBA) based on Statcast at .262.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s average batting ability more accurately than the actual batting average.

The third best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall batting ability is the Houston Astros.

• A pitcher who is facing a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick takes on the Los Angeles Angels:

Patrick Sandoval has used his four-seam fastball 9.4% less often this year (16.1%) than last year (25.5%).

• Fastballs are the easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball less often will likely be more effective than before.

Since the start of last season, Logan O’Hoppe’s 15.3 Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 92nd percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a tremendous measure of underlying power.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen ranks 3rd worst in the league, according to the major projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and improves a game’s runs.

Gaming Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have reached the first five innings total (F5) under the team total in 38 of their last 64 games (+10.95 units / 14% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have reached the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 65 games (+13.55 units / 19% ROI)
• Nolan Schanuel has reached the Singles Under in his last 9 matches (+9.25 units / 97% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final score: Houston Astros 4.95 vs. Los Angeles Angels 4.24

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