Atlanta Braves offense slumps, hopes for comeback

It’s been painful to watch a talented Atlanta Braves roster flounder for so long, especially against sub-.500 teams. A recent series against the Nationals, where the Braves lost 3 of 4 games and were outscored 20-7, highlights the depth of their struggles. This performance stands in stark contrast to last year, when the Braves led the league in home runs, slugging percentage and runs per game.

This slowdown leaves coaches, players and fans perplexed. To understand the decline, we can look at their On-base Plus Slugging (OPS) and other key metrics.

Runs per game: In 2023, the Braves averaged a league-leading 5.75 runs per game. This year, however, they are averaging just 4.46 points per game, a significant drop of 1.29 points. Notably, their home and away divisions have also reversed. Last year, they averaged 5.81 points per game at home and 4.83 on the road. This year, they are scoring 4.14 points per game at home and 4.81 on the road. Historically, from 2021 to 2022, the Braves have averaged about 4.75 points per game on the road and about 4.90 points per game at home.

The current underperformance at home is particularly concerning and could be influenced by factors such as early season conditions. Regardless, the numbers indicate a significant decline in home game production.

OPS performance: Designated hitter Marcell Ozuna is having a career year with an OPS of .997, well above his career average of .803. But he’s about the only player who goes all out, especially at the top of the lineup. Matt Olson, who has a career OPS of .866, currently sports an OPS of .748, which is 40 points shy of the worst season of his career in 2018 with the Oakland Athletics. Riley, who is a historically slow starter, has a career OPS of .837, but his performance is also below expectations this season. His consistent performance over the past three years suggests his OPS should rise soon.

The team as a whole has an OPS of .723 this year, compared to .845 last year, a difference of .122. Excluding the exceptional 2023 season and shortened 2020 season, the Braves have had an average OPS of 0.768 since 2019, indicating that their current performance is below their historical norm.

The Braves offense is significantly underperforming, especially at home. However, historical data suggests that key players like Olson and Riley will likely improve their performance as the season progresses. While the current numbers are concerning, there is reason to believe the Braves will bounce back, especially with projections still showing a tight race in the NL East.

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Photo: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire