Why the Atlanta Braves are no longer the National League favorites

In the month of April, the Braves wasted no time in asserting their dominance. They capped their spectacular run with a series victory against the best team in the AL at the time, the Cleveland Guardians. However, since the start of the series with the Mariners, the Braves have been on a bit of a slide.

They have since ceded first place in the NL East to their bitter rivals, the Phillies. Should this be alarming? Short answer, no. Every team experiences a crisis. Bad days and losing streaks are just a part of baseball, but for anyone who watched last year’s Braves, this could be a headache. The question that lingers on the back of every Braves fan’s back is: What’s the difference between these two Braves teams?

Disclaimer: All statistics reflect totals at the time of writing, 7/5.

When you look at the two formations, they are very similar. And while the Braves’ record is still very good, this year’s team doesn’t have the same feel as the one that won 104 games. This is due to two differences: offensive production and initial launch.

Last season’s programming was running at full speed, relentlessly. If this season’s Braves lineup appears to be a far cry from last year’s, it’s because most of their key hitters are struggling at the plate. Ronald Acuna Jr, Matt Olson and Austin Riley have each produced at a phenomenal level, posting astronomical numbers during their 2023 campaign.

This year they have collectively hit 8 HR while their batting averages suffer (the .267 AVERAGE is still fair, but well below last year’s .337). Olson, the Braves’ reigning home run king and record holder, is currently hitting under .200. The main force behind what keeps the Braves alive and thriving (with the exception of Marcell Ozuna, whose bat carries the Braves’ offense) is the starting rotation.

The rotation was able to put together some quality starts allowing their offense to take full advantage. Either way, even if players have down years, it would be hard to imagine if the entire core of the Braves lineup doesn’t start hitting like they did last year or so. less to a certain extent. With talents like those of Acuña, Olson and Riley, it’s only a matter of time before they figure it out. Hopefully it will come sooner rather than later. Regardless, the Braves are still on pace to win 103 games.

This brings us to the topic of the playoffs. Even with the offensive struggles of key players, the Braves continue to win at a rate above .600. As annual playoff contenders with an excellent record, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them again this season. However, once there, they will be greeted by an assortment of very talented teams. It may be a little too early to call the favorites to win the Fall Classic, but it’s never too early to gauge a team’s ability to do so. That said, do the Braves have what it takes to overtake the competition?

Championship teams generally share a set of traits that are commonly seen in the playoffs. Among the most important are a high slugging percentage, high on-base percentage, and excellent pitching. Most championship teams didn’t start the year ready to play a World Series game. Rather, they moved players around, replacing weakness with strength and reinforcing the strengths they already possessed. To get an accurate picture of the Braves’ playoff viability, we need to evaluate their weaknesses as well as any positions where they could improve.

Let’s start with the Braves’ offense. It’s no secret that the Braves have a formidable lineup. The top five players in their order each hit 30+ HR last year. This tied a record set by the 2019 Minnesota Twins. In total, the 2023 Braves hit 307 HRs, once again tying the 2019 Minnesota Twins for the all-time record. Their .276 AVG also led the MLB last year. However, this year it is different.

Collectively, they reached 33 HR (20th in MLB) with an average GPA of 0.256 (4th in MLB). Their batting order contains a significant number of weak points. Given that some of these weak spots are occupied by some of the best players we’ve seen in baseball, it’s fair to assume that their numbers will recover at some point. The same can be said of Orlando Arcia and Michael Harris II, who have fallen into a bit of a rough patch themselves recently but have shown they are far more capable than their results would suggest.

It would also be unfair to mention their mediocre numbers this year without mentioning that they are excellent defenders. With that in mind, it wouldn’t make sense for the Braves to change what has worked so well in the past. Beyond that, any further criticism of the Braves roster would be nitpicking, as the Braves are loaded with talent. But for the sake of nitpicking, we might visit a position that is seeing below-average production.

That would be in left field which is Adam Duvall and Jarred Kelenic. There is still plenty of time to see if they can improve. Duvall and Kelenic have shown at times that they are capable of big things, but if the struggle continues, the Braves may want to add a full-time outfielder capable of producing at a higher level heading into the playoffs as any weakness in the ‘alignment. can spell disaster.

Lately it seems like they’re showing up, which hopefully they will. But even if that’s not the case, the batting order shouldn’t be a major concern. This year’s Braves may not possess the best batting average or highest home run total in MLB at season’s end, but if their slumping sluggers start hitting like they have been last year they will be hard to beat.

Looking at the Braves pitching staff, you might notice that it’s good, but not great. They are ranked 11th overall with a 3.67 ERA. The most unfortunate part of the Braves’ season so far has been the loss of Spencer Strider, last season’s strikeout leader. Worse, Strider was extremely effective against the Phillies, who frustratingly eliminated the Braves in two straight playoff series. Since 2022 through this year, Strider has posted a 2.06 ERA against the Phillies.

Luckily, the Braves acquired Reynaldo Lopez this offseason, which was probably the best steal of the year. Since the start of the season, he has gone from 5th starter to ace with a 1.53 ERA. In the postseason, having three or four reliable starting pitchers is essential. The Braves currently have four viable options: Lopez, Fried, Sale and Morton.

This may not sound like the strongest rotation, but these pitchers have proven they can provide quality starts and each of them had moments of greatness (Lopez had several). At this time, it’s too early to tell if acquiring another quality starter would prove crucial to winning a championship, but it could be a smart move to ensure they perform well in competition.

The main problem with the Braves pitching staff is the unreliability of their bullpen. They currently maintain a 3.41 ERA, ranked 9th in the MLB among bullpens. On paper it doesn’t look that bad, but in the postseason this comparison is meaningless because the other bullpens and pitching staffs in general will likely be great. In playoff games, teams need reliable late-inning weapons to lock down games. At this point, the Braves don’t have a lock-down bullpen. This could be a very smart move if they acquire a quality weapon or two.

As things stand, the Braves don’t appear to be a championship team. The Phillies and Dodgers appear better prepared for the playoffs, especially after the 3-game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers. Last year the Braves looked invincible, but even then they lost 3-1 to the Phillies. However, the Braves are not very far away. Two or three smart moves could be the difference between elimination and a trophy if their formidable offense resurfaces in time for the playoffs. It’s a long season, so fans shouldn’t hit the panic button just yet.