First Alert Weather: Heat returns and with it the risk of storms

ROCHESTER, NY — We’ve been enjoying a stretch of pleasant and calm weather, but that’s about to change this week. The intense heat that’s been hanging over the central U.S. will try to move eastward. It’ll likely stick around for at least a day, but we’ll be dealing with a complicated setup this week.

Tuesday will be hotter and more humid as the ridge expands eastward. Away from Lake Ontario, temperatures will hover around 90 degrees F. This heat will likely be short-lived as a cold front moves south again on Wednesday, dropping our temperatures back into the 70s to 80s F. Thursday will likely stay that way before the same front moves north again as a warm front on Friday, pushing us back into the mid to upper 80s F.

As for storm chances, this is where the forecast gets a little more complicated. A compact cluster of storms will move into our region along this heat dome. This will increase storm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, although the main threat is directly south of us according to the latest forecasts. The cold front that will push our temperatures down on Wednesday will also bring some showers or thunderstorms. With limited instability, severe weather chances appear more on the low end of the scale.

At this point, Thursday looks mostly dry as the front is close by, but probably far enough south to keep the main storm threat away. However, it will move north again on Friday. That will bring a renewed storm threat later Friday before the front finally moves south early Saturday.

For those making plans for the weekend, the holiday weekend may begin with a few showers Saturday morning, followed by a slight clearing. A second cold front moving south could bring a few more scattered showers later Sunday, followed by cooler and crisper air with clouds and sun for Labor Day.