Historical Hurricane Season Forecasts, Storm Names: What You Need to Know in Georgia

GEORGIA – Georgia residents, especially those near the coast, can expect an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, according to preseason forecasts released Thursday by hurricane researchers in Colorado State University.

The overall chance of major hurricanes making landfall somewhere in the continental United States is 62 percent, compared to an average of 43 percent, researchers said in a first study for the period from June 1 to June 1. november. 30 hurricane season.

(See the list of storm names chosen for the season below.)

Specifically, the researchers said the likelihood of a major hurricane making landfall is:

• 34 percent for the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, compared to an average of 21 percent;
• 42 percent for the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas, compared to an average of 27 percent;
• 66 percent for the Caribbean, compared to an average of 47 percent.

And if a La Niña weather pattern forms as predicted, the chances of an intense hurricane season are even greater, researchers say.

The research team is forecasting 23 named tropical storms, including 11 hurricanes, five of which could be “major” hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. The chances for a busy season are a combination of record-high Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions that boost tropical cyclones, researchers said.

The storm names for the 2024 season are:

• Alberto
• Beryl
• Chris
• Déby
• Ernesto
• Francine
• Gordon
• Helene
• Isaac
• Joyce
• Church
• Leslie
• Milton
• Nadine
• Oscar
• Patty
• Raphael
• Sarah
• Tony
• Valerie
• William

The researchers said they had “higher than normal confidence” in the forecasts, but cautioned that “considerable changes” could occur in the atmosphere and ocean between April and the peak of the temperature. hurricane season.

“We expect a much higher than average chance of major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coast and in the Caribbean,” the group said Thursday.

Storms may become more frequent as the season progresses. Researchers said accumulated cyclone energy, which measures the frequency, intensity and duration of storms, could be more than twice normal, reaching 170 percent of average by the end of of the season.

An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms – seven hurricanes, three of which are major. The 2023 season saw 20 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Researchers explained that while an El Niño warms the atmosphere and changes wind circulation patterns, a La Niña climate pattern suppresses these winds, creating ideal conditions for hurricanes to form and gain strength. .

In its March forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said the chances of a La Niña developing are about 55 percent from June to August and 77 percent from September to november.