Bills’ James Cook can eclipse insulting offseason projection with 2023 repeat

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook has emerged as a bona fide RB1 in 2023, but the betting market suggests his production could drop slightly this fall.

Playing 55 percent of the offensive snaps in 17 regular-season games, Cook totaled 1,567 yards from scrimmage, good for third among NFL running backs. He rushed 237 times for 1,122 yards and caught 44 of 55 receiving targets while averaging 10.1 yards per reception.

As for what awaits us in 2024, BetOnline Projected season totals for running backs stats have been released to the betting market, and player prop totals suggest Cook may struggle to replicate his impressive 2023 numbers.

Here’s a look at three of Cook’s players’ season totals along with predictions for each.

OVER/UNDER 950.5

Projection: FINISHED (Best Bet)

Cook appears destined for a second straight 1,000-yard rushing campaign, health permitting. He ran for 1,122 yards last year despite complete misses against Cincinnati and Jacksonville. Then there’s the fact that the Bills have shown a tendency to put more emphasis on the ground game after Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator midway through the season. Cook’s average jumped to 18.5 rushing attempts per game over the final four weeks of the regular season.

OVER/UNDER 400.5

Projection: BELOW

Cook will undoubtedly bring his share of explosive play through the passing game, but the focus will likely be on the third-year player becoming a bell-type running back. The Bills could look to spread out short- and medium-range receiving targets with new addition Curtis Samuel potentially reducing Cook’s role as a receiver. Cook is unlikely to see the 2.6 targets per game he got in 2023, which would allow him to finish just shy of the 400-yard receiving mark.

RELATED: Betting on a seemingly low TD pass total for QB Josh Allen

OVER/UNDER 4.5

Projection: ON

It’s remarkable that Cook had just two touchdowns on 237 carries last year, with the Bills relying heavily on quarterback Josh Allen’s legs in goal-to-go situations. Allen had 15 rushing touchdowns, closing in on the franchise single-season record set by Hall of Fame running back O.J. Simpson. The law of averages suggests Cook will stumble for at least five touchdowns in 2024.

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