ESPN identifies WR as Buffalo Bills’ ‘biggest hole,’ casts doubt on offseason moves

You can call it what you want – a changing of the guard, an on-field and locker room shake-up, a financial necessity – but the basic point remains: The Buffalo Bills have experienced significant turnover at the wide receiver position over the past few years. of the 2024 offseason.

The team has fielded one of the most productive aerial attacks in the league over the past few years, finishing in the top 10 in total passes in each of the last four seasons thanks to elite quarterback prowess Josh Allen and his respective relationships with wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. Add in the contributions of players like Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Dawson Knox and Khalil Shakir over the years, and you have the foundation of a consistently effective passing unit.

The realities of the NFL salary cap — and a team’s sometimes tenuous relationship with its superstars — can get to you quickly, however, and they got to the Bills during the 2024 offseason. Buffalo let go of Davis, who caught 163 passes for 2,730 yards and 27 touchdowns in his four seasons with the team, entering free agency, the 25-year-old signing a three-year, $39 million contract with his hometown Jacksonville Jaguars, in March. . The team traded Diggs to the Houston Texans the following month following growing rumors about the team’s dissatisfaction with the team. A four-time Pro Bowler in Buffalo, Diggs caught 445 passes for 5,372 yards and 37 touchdowns during his nearly half-century with the team.

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Buffalo lost its top two passing contributors by allowing the departure of Diggs and Davis, throwing away a total of 152 receptions for 1,929 yards and 15 touchdowns compared to the previous season.

The team hopes to replace (some of) that production by promoting the aforementioned Shakir and second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid to larger offensive roles. The Bills also added external reinforcements in the spring in the form of free agents Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins, as well as beefy pass catcher Keon Coleman with the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to play an offensive role immediate substantial.

One outlet believes the team’s efforts to replace its starting production weren’t strong enough. Football Outsiders founder and current ESPN writer Aaron Schatz recently identified every team’s biggest weakness after the 2024 NFL Draft; while he is generally complimentary of Coleman as a player, he does not have confidence in Buffalo’s receiving corps as a whole.

“The problem is that Coleman might now be the Bills’ best receiver,” Schatz wrote. “Khalil Shakir is a speed demon who had excellent advanced metrics last year (55.1% DVOA on 45 targets!), but is he ready to be a starter in the NFL? Curtis Samuel is an average slot receiver who has never ranked higher than 39th in receiving DYAR. Mack Hollins will be 31 this year. Recent signee Chase Claypool is on his fourth team since 2022 and hasn’t been able to replicate his rookie year production in 2020. KJ Hamler and Quintez Cephus are “never healthy” lottery tickets. Forget Stefon Diggs; I’m also not sure this team has really replaced Gabe Davis.

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That may be a bit of a pessimistic assessment of the Bills front office, but it’s not necessarily inaccurate. Coleman, who caught 50 passes for 658 yards and 11 touchdowns for the Florida State Seminoles last season, has leaping ability and potential, but it’s understandable that an expert wouldn’t share general manager Brandon Beane’s belief in wide as the immediate “X” of the team. wide receiver.

Shakir has shown flashes of spot duty, but while there is certainly reason for optimism, he has not proven himself as a starter. While Samuel faces an advantageous opportunity in Buffalo, now paired with the best signal-caller of his career and the offensive coordinator who helped him produce the best statistical season of his career, it is true that the forward has never broke for 851 receiving yards in a single season. . Hollins is primarily a special teamer, while Claypool, Hamler and Cephus are dart shooters who in all likelihood won’t hit.

While it makes sense that Schatz would omit mentioning Buffalo’s tight end group given that he’s focusing solely on the team’s receiving corps, it’s perhaps a bit disingenuous to discuss the passing attack of the Bills without mentioning unity. Kincaid starred as a rookie with 73 passes for 673 yards, and many project the former Utah wide receiver to lead the Bills in receptions in his second year. Allen also has a demonstrated relationship with Dawson Knox, who caught 171 passes for 1,966 yards and 22 touchdowns during his five-year career.

Either way, Buffalo’s receiving corps proper is unproven. There are long-term elements of the unit worth liking, but there is little concrete evidence to suggest the unit will be able to replicate the success it has produced in recent seasons. That said, Allen is the great equalizer. It will take a truly special quarterback to lead this seemingly standard group of pass catchers into elite production; Luckily for Buffalo, it has a truly special signal-caller.