Israel-Gaza latest: Israeli President Isaac Herzog thanks Joe Biden after far-right minister’s ‘irresponsible’ comments | World News

By Mark Stone, US correspondent

All decisions have intended and unintended consequences.

The intended consequence of President Biden’s threat to stop supplying some weapons to Israel is clear: to prevent the Israeli military from entering Rafah without a clear, actionable plan for civilians.

But there are so many unintended consequences.

This decision could weigh on President Biden both geopolitically and domestically.

Even before we think about the unintended consequences, there is a crucial point: the dangers that come with setting red lines.

All too often they prove to be flawed instruments of geopolitical diplomacy.

What if Netanyahu broke the red line and invaded Rafah?

He probably has enough American weapons stockpiled to do that.

Will Biden stick to his threat to stop arms supplies? Or will he give in? What message will these two decisions send far and wide?

That brings us to the unintended consequences. First the regional consequences:

• Could there be a greater number of civilian casualties? If Netanyahu continues his Rafah operation, but with a dwindling supply of American weapons (so-called smart bombs), he will use less sophisticated “dumb bombs.” This could lead to even more civilian casualties;
• What message does it send regionally? That it may appear that America is abandoning Israel (even though that is not what Biden has said) will not be lost on countries around the world. It suggests that America is uncertain about its alliances. For months, Biden has rejected calls to limit arms deliveries. Now he has made a U-turn. The Gulf states are already doubting America’s stability as an ally. While they will agree with his announcement last night, the broader message it sends will resonate;
• Does it encourage Iran? Restricting arms to its oldest Middle East ally at a time of great danger to Israel is seen by some as a gift to Tehran;
• What impact will it have on the ceasefire negotiations? It is logical that Hamas may see this decision as weakening Israel and therefore persevere in the ongoing negotiations to get more out of them.

Added to this are the domestic political consequences.

They were formulated by his presidential opponent Donald Trump, who said: “What Biden is doing regarding Israel is a disgrace. If any Jew voted for Joe Biden, they should be ashamed. He has completely failed Israel and no one can believe it.”

President Biden has already angered important segments of the electorate with his existing Gaza policy.

By fully supporting Netanyahu, he alienated key Arab-American populations in places like Michigan, a state he must win in November. Additionally, students (many of whom would be natural Biden voters) say they can’t vote for him now and “Genocide Joe” is their cry.

Now he risks angering Jewish-American voters with his gun announcement. Many are deeply angry about what they see as the abandonment of the Jewish state.

His poorly worded insistence that he will continue to back Israel on defense will be lost on many voters. You only see the heading.

Also remember that virtually all Republicans oppose any leverage he uses to rein in Israel. They want nothing less than full support for Israel.

But more than that, many of his own Democrats are concerned about America restricting arms to Israel. Only the progressive left of his party supports his move.

It’s a dangerous political push-me-pull-you, and the election is still six months away.