Houston Astros’ slowest start in a decade raises many questions

As we sit here at the fifty-game mark of the Major League Baseball season, as I write this in the middle of an off day for the Houston Astros, oddly enough, I remember the shortened season from COVID in 2020. At 22 years old. 28, the last time the Astros got off to such a poor start was that season, which ended at 29-31, with the Astros sneaking into the playoffs with the last playoff spot.

If you recall, after barely qualifying for an extended playoff run, the Astros had a tear that ultimately led to them making the ALCS (again) and taking the Tampa Bay Rays to a seventh game. So why is this important now? Well, it’s a good lesson that even good teams play mediocre baseball for 50 or 60 periods of a game.

Again, at 22-28, by the measure of their win-loss record, this Astros team is not a good baseball team. However, they have been heating up of late, going 7-3 in their last home game, and are on the cusp of a huge opportunity to overcome their deficit in the AL West this weekend and next week. Starting tonight, they play three games in Oakland against an A team they just swept, then four games in Seattle against the Mariners, who they trail by five games in the standings.

For now, with a day off to reflect, let’s look at the most pressing questions facing the Houston Astros in the days and weeks ahead:

How will this José Abreu situation ultimately resolve itself?
For about a month, first baseman Jose Abreu has been at the Astros’ rookie development camp in West Palm Beach trying to figure out what’s wrong with his swing. It’s an unprecedented decision for a team to invoke (and for a player to accept, for that matter) to try to make an aging player perform. On Thursday, Abreu had “checked all the boxes” for a return to real baseball. It looks like it will start with a few games in Sugar Land at the AAA level, and inevitably, Abreu will return to the Astros. I hope the Astros have a very, VERY short rope with him. If Abreu looks as lost in his first few games in Houston as he did when he left, then bail, pay the freight and get him out of here. I hate it when a struggling team wastes valuable at-bats on a guy who is probably washed up.

What will the starting rotation look like in September?
It seems strange to say this about a starting rotation that has been so injured and inconsistent, but the Astros are about to have a surplus of starting pitchers in the big leagues, and Joe Espada is going to have some big decisions to take in narrowing down what could be a roster of nine to five, maybe six, starting pitchers. Here’s how it looks, from now on:

REDUCTION IMMUNE: Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco

AUDITION TO KEEP THEIR ROLE: Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown

BOY LIKELY TO FALL: Spencer Arrighetti

RETURN OF THE WILD CARDS: José Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers

Assuming Blanco continues to pitch like he has, he’s earned a solidified rotation spot and really represents some nice “found money” here. Javier will likely have every chance to keep his spot, and Hunter Brown has been better lately. Among the injured, Urquidy is the first to return from injury. He better string together a few good starts, otherwise Luis Garcia is nipping at his heels, and then there’s the wild card that is Lance McCullers, who probably gets an audition debut right away, given his 17 million salary of dollars and his experience with big game. This is an important turning point coming for Espada.

Can Kyle Tucker win AL MVP on a bad team?
Several media outlets have Tucker as the American League MVP in the first quarter of the season. He is at least among the top three candidates, and rightly so. With every home run Tucker hits, and no one has hit more in the American League this season, he adds more and more millions to what will inevitably be a gargantuan contract extension over the next year. If the vote took place today, Tucker would be dragged down by the 22-28 baseball team he works hard for. Juan Soto of the Yankees would likely win the award. So do it for Tuck, guys! In all seriousness, the team needs to be in the playoff race at a minimum for Tucker to get high-level MVP consideration.

Does Alex Bregman wake up, and if he doesn’t, what does free agency look like?
On the other end of the Astro spectrum is Alex Bregman, who, like Tucker, is also playing for a significant contract extension. Aside from a 10-game streak earlier this month, Bregman has been one of the hardest-hit third basemen in all of baseball. The defense is still elite, but that doesn’t matter as much when Joe Espada insists on putting Bregman at cleanup in the everyday lineup like a walking grenade between Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena. Bregman is quickly working his way to a short-term contract extension from someone, possibly the Astros, this offseason.

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