How will the Falcons offense change under Zac Robinson?

The Atlanta Falcons offense is poised to undergo one of the most dramatic changes in the NFL following the transition from Arthur Smith to Zac Robinson this offseason. Host Kevin Knight breaks down the most notable changes coming to Atlanta, including personnel packages, usage rates of top players and diversity in the running and passing game.

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I know people have requested transcripts of these shows, which we are unable to provide at this point (although we would like to). From time to time, I write notes for these data-rich episodes, so that I can at least share them in written form for readers. These won’t be as strong as a full article and they won’t convey everything I talk about on the show itself, but they will at least give you an idea of ​​the main points.

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1. 11-staff IS the offense

• Rams used 11 (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) 82% of the time (1st), the Falcons only used 11 14% (32nd). LA used 3 receivers on about 94% of all plays in 2023.
• The reason is that the offense always looks the same and the defense doesn’t get any cues about the play or trend based on personnel.
• LA and ATL rarely use a shotgun. The Rams were at 26% (30th) and the Falcons were at 20% (32nd). However, the Rams used single sets at one of the highest rates in the NFL (44%, 3rd), while the Falcons used it just 13% of the time (26th).

2. The best players will be featured more

• Not only will 11 dominate, but it’s likely the same personnel will play the vast majority of snaps (injuries aside). The Rams used three primary receiving targets (Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Tutu Atwell) with a rotation option (Demarcus Robinson), a primary tight end (Tyler Higbee) and a primary RB (Kyren Williams).
• For the Falcons, this group should be pretty obvious: Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Rondale Moore and whoever wins the battle for WR4 (Casey Washington, KhaDarel Hodge or Ray-Ray McCloud), Kyle Pitts at TE and Bijan Robinson at RB. . Fantasy heads should be happy!
• For some teams lacking top talent, this could be a problem. This could also be a problem in case of injuries. For the Falcons, this should be a boon. Atlanta has invested significant capital in acquiring top talent at WR, TE and RB. This program will focus on them to step up and shine.

3. The passing game will be emphasized more, but it will still be a “balanced” offense compared to the rest of the NFL.

• The Rams had a run/pass split of 58/41 (25th) and a PROE (Passing Rate Over Expectation) of -2.8% (21st)
• The Falcons were the second-most rushing team in the NFL (55/44) and 32nd in PROE at -9.7%.
• The presence of Kirk Cousins ​​also impacts things: you’ll obviously be more successful with a competent quarterback
• The Rams targeted receivers heavily in the passing game (71% target share, 1st) while the Falcons targeted them at the lowest rate in the NFL (38%, 32nd). The Falcons had the highest target share for TE (34%) and third for RB (24%). Given the Falcons’ talent at TE/RB, this will likely be less of an extreme split, but still significantly more targets for WRs than in 2023.

4. The running game will be more diverse in terms of power/zone scheme and in terms of inside/outside running.

• The Rams have used both blocking schemes to great effect in 2023, which is a departure from the previous emphasis on zones.
• The Rams were much more balanced in terms of running locations, the Falcons were 32nd in interior runs with just 13%.

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