Houston Astros vs. New York Mets Odds, Picks & Predictions

THE New York Mets (40-40) welcomes the Houston Astros (41-41) at Citi Field on Sunday. First pitch of the 3-game series finale is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze the FanDuel Sportsbook lines around the Astros vs Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Seasonal series: tied 1-1

The Mets are 21-24 at home after losing 9-6 on Saturday despite closing as a -111 favorite. New York had its 4-game winning streak snapped, but is still 12-3 in its last 15 games. The Mets have won 8 of their last 9 home games. They are 40-40 against the spread (ATS).

The Astros are 17-22 on the road after losing Saturday, but won the series opener 7-2 Friday. They are also playing well, having won 8 of their last 9 games. Houston has won 3 of its last 4 road games. They are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games to even their season ATS record at 41-41.

Astros to Mets projected starters

RHP Shawn Dubin against RHP Luis Severino

Dubin (1-1, 5.64 ERA) is making his 15th appearance and 1st start. He has a 1.66 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 22 1/3 IP.

• Last game: No decision, 1 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 K in a 7-1 home win over the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday
• 2024 Away Results: 0-0, 6.14 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.77 WHIP, 0 HR, 12.3 K/9 in 5 appearances
• Career vs. Mets: 0-0, 15.00 ERA (3 IP, 5 ER), 2.67 WHIP, 12.0 K/9 in 1 appearance

Severino (5-2, 3.29 ERA) is making his 16th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 90 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 10 K in a 5-2 road win against the Chicago Cubs on Sunday
• 2024 Home Record: 3-1, 2.47 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 5 HR, 6.7 K/9 in 8 starts
• Career vs. Astros: 2-4, 4.93 ERA (45 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 9 appearances (8 starts)

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Astros alongside Mets

Powered by FanDuel Sportsbook; go to USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:48 a.m. ET.

• Money Line (ML): Astros +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Mets -154 (bet $154 to win $100)
• Running Line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-160) | Put -1.5 (+130)
• More/Less (Y/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Astros and Mets Picks and Predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Astros 4

Money line

METS BET (-154).

The Astros, given that Dubin has made numerous appearances but not started, will likely turn to their bullpen early on. They rank 13th in the major leagues in reliever earned run average. The Astros’ strength in their recent winning streak has been their pitching, which allowed 1 or 2 runs in 4 games from June 22-26. In the last 2 games, they have allowed 13 runs.

Dubin and a middling bullpen will have a red-hot Mets team that has scored at least 6 runs in 4 straight games. The Mets have won Severino’s last 5 starts, but have only covered 3. Given these trends, take the team with the best starting option here and back METS (-154).

Running Line/Against the Spread

PASS.

Simply put, the Mets are too risky as favorites on the run line, while the Astros are too expensive as underdogs on the run line. The best value, on either side, is on the money line.

More less

LEAN ON 9 (-110).

The Mets are 5-2 O/U in Severino’s last 7 starts and scoring easily last week. They have gone over in 4 consecutive games and in 5 of their last 7. New York has allowed at least 7 points in 2 of its last 4 and in 3 of its last 6.

The Astros, who are just 30-48-4 O/U, have gone over the projected total in two straight games and are 3-1-1 O/U in their last 5 games . They have scored at least 5 points in 7 of their last 8 games. With these trends in mind, let’s return to MORE THAN 9 (-110).

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